Nomura USD/CNY Fix Model: Projection 6.7902
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Nomura has released its latest USD/CNY central parity rate model projection, forecasting a value of 6.7902. This represents a decline of 529 basis points from the previous projection of 6.8431 and sits 3 basis points below the preceding official spot closing price. When incorporating the counter-cyclical factor, the adjusted model projection stands at 6.8132, which is 299 basis points lower than the prior central parity rate.
The overnight contribution weights highlight the Russian ruble, Mexican peso, euro, and Australian dollar as the top four currencies influencing the projected change. Model error charts indicate that recent daily model errors have experienced significant volatility. Additionally, the daily change chart for the USD/CNY fixing shows fluctuations ranging between negative 150 and positive 150 basis points between November 2025 and April 2026.
Nomura also provides a calendar of upcoming events that could influence exchange rate policy. Key dates include a summit between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi on May 14-15, a Politburo meeting in late July, the National Day Golden Week from October 1-7, the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November, the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December, and a subsequent Politburo meeting in late December.
The significant downward revision in the projection reflects recent US dollar weakness and corresponding upward pressure on the renminbi.