A-Share Strategy Weekly: Mist and Compass
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Sinolink Securities' A-share strategy weekly argues the US AI chain is splitting: upstream compute demand stays strong with rental prices elevated, but model vendors keep trading price for volume—token prices sit below end-2025 levels—while cloud vendors' CDS spreads widen, loosening AI's support for the dollar. After three reversals, markets price a 50%-60% chance of a September Fed hike; inflation is the next focus. The 2024-25 three-factor bull market has, since March, become an 'impossible triangle,' and earnings may be topping: 2026Q2 order-backlog growth has fallen two straight quarters (usually leading revenue by about two), non-AI ex-non-recurring profit growth stays low, and industrial profits have declined three straight months. August manufacturing PMI new orders rose 2.1 points to 50.6% versus +0.5 for exports, a domestic-led repair needing verification. With US-Iran escalation pushing Hormuz traffic near zero and Brent above US$95/bbl, OECD commercial crude at historic lows, US gasoline and diesel at their lowest since 2021, Chinese chemicals at five-year lows and Western refineries near full utilization, the report sees rising supply-chain stress and commodities as relatively resilient. Allocation: energy first (coal, oil, shipping, refining); copper, gold and aluminum await the September FOMC; high-dividend assets remain the core haven; export chains (machinery, grid equipment) retain value. Risks: abrupt overseas tightening; a major AI breakthrough.
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