Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare: Pharmaceuticals: China Biopharma: Sustained Momentum Amid Emerging Policy Dynamics
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Key Views
Oncology leads out-licensing (51 deals YTD), with basket deals rising: BMY/Hengrui (13 early-stage projects, up to ~$15bn) and PFE/Innovent (12 oncology projects, up to ~$10bn). With ~$440bn of annual revenue facing 2028-32 patent expiries, Goldman expects global pharma to keep sourcing Chinese assets, with contributions shifting toward genuine innovation. Policy risk is rising: after BIOSECURE's December 2025 effectiveness, the 1260H list first named WuXi AppTec, Novogene and BGI Group (WuXi Bio not named); proposed BINSA could bring China licensing deals (2025: ~$136bn) under Treasury review; ITC findings are due by January 22, 2027.
Outlook
The key 2026 catalyst is SMMT's global Phase 3 HARMONi-3 (ivonescimab) first-line squamous NSCLC readout in 2H26, directly benchmarking Keytruda ($31.7bn 2025 sales). Goldman hosts a Shanghai investor trip September 21-24 (WuXi AppTec, Hengrui, Hansoh, Innovent, Kelun-Biotech, Akeso); no ratings or target prices were given.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
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