Goldman Sachs: Gold Outlook — Resilient Structural Demand Despite Near-Term Headwinds
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Key Views
Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end 2026 gold price target of USD 4,900/oz, anchored by emerging market central bank reserve diversification. This structural shift accelerated after Russian reserves were frozen in 2022. In the 2026 OMFIF survey, 51% of reserve managers cited gold as a hedge against geopolitical risk, up 11 percentage points from 2024. Additionally, 79% see the global monetary system moving toward a more multipolar structure, reinforcing central bank gold purchases.
Outlook
Central bank gold buying is expected to slow over the summer before re-accelerating from September. Medium-term forecast risks skew to the upside, as private portfolio allocations to gold remain low. Geopolitical tensions, including the Iran situation, could drive broader private-investor diversification into gold.
Recommended Securities
The report does not specify individual company or securities recommendations. Its core asset view is maintaining the year-end 2026 gold forecast of USD 4,900/oz.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
