Nomura (via UBS): Semiconductor Packaging Industry Update: Package Substrate Shipments Up 98% YoY
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Nomura's Japan electronics team highlights June production-dynamics survey data showing package substrate (rigid module substrate) shipment value up 98% YoY to ¥29.1bn, surpassing May's record ¥27.8bn. Area shipments rose 20% YoY, while average price per square meter climbed 65% YoY to ¥1.429m, also a record, driven chiefly by Rubin processor package shipments. Nomura judges that tight supply-demand for high-end substrates may persist two to three years: larger substrates depress yields and constrain shipment growth just as demand accelerates for server CPUs, network switches, AI data-center GPUs and custom ASICs. Unlike 2022—when the world's largest CPU maker over-ordered on partly unsustainable panic demand—this cycle reflects structural constraints. With few factories globally capable of advanced packaging, low-priority projects have shifted to older-generation lines, where implementation-stage production problems may emerge. EMIB-T is expected to enter mass production in 2H27; its longer, harder process can only run at advanced fabs, further reducing supply capacity. Ibiden, holding the industry's most advanced lines, is expected to be the main EMIB-T supplier, though limited capacity may hinder timely responses to large orders. Nomura rates Ibiden (4062) Buy, without a target price in the report.
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