South Korea Technology: February 2026 GS DRAM Sentiment Indicator Shows Continued Improvement in Contract Pricing
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Goldman Sachs reports that its February 2026 DRAM sentiment indicator remains modestly positive, unchanged from January. The analysis highlights that near-term DRAM contract pricing expectations continue to improve, supported by strong spot price premiums and robust server demand.
Spot pricing growth has moderated, with DDR5 rising 2% and DDR4 up 1% month-over-month. However, significant premiums persist, with DDR5 spot prices holding a 34% premium over January contract prices and DDR4 maintaining a massive 132% premium, signaling potential substantial contract price hikes.
AI server deployments continue to drive demand. Taiwan server ODMs reported a 91% year-over-year revenue increase in January, marking three consecutive months of growth exceeding 80%. Additionally, Korean DRAM exports surged 167% year-over-year. Nanya Technology's revenue skyrocketed 608% year-over-year, driven by strong DDR4 pricing.
Conversely, Chinese smartphone shipments fell 29% year-over-year in December, ending five months of growth. Goldman Sachs expects a further 10% decline in the first quarter of 2026, as rising memory prices suppress end-demand.
The blended DRAM ASP estimate for the first quarter of 2026 reflects an approximate 62% sequential increase. Channel feedback confirms tightening supply conditions, with suppliers holding negotiating leverage and clients seeking long-term agreements to secure capacity.
Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings on Samsung Electronics with a target price of KRW 205,000, and on SK Hynix with a target price of KRW 1,200,000.