Goldman Sachs: Shenzhen SC New Energy Technology (300724): China Forum 2026 — Management Guides Order Outlook Inflection in 2026
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At Goldman Sachs' China Forum 2026 on March 5, Shenzhen SC New Energy Technology (300724.SZ) management guided a 2026 order inflection driven by overseas TOPCon capacity expansion. Total order value is expected to exceed RMB4 billion, up over 14% year-on-year from RMB3.5 billion in 2025. Overseas TOPCon orders alone should rise from RMB2 billion to above RMB3.5 billion, reflecting manufacturing reshoring demand from the US, India, North Asia, and the Middle East.
Management is in talks with multiple US clients planning a combined 40GW+ of new capacity. At RMB200 million per GW and a 50-60% global market share, this could lift 2026 order value to RMB8 billion.
On perovskite, management expects China's 2026 tender volumes to at least double to roughly 1.5GW from 600-700MW in 2025. Assuming a stable 40% market share, perovskite order value would increase from RMB250-300 million to over RMB500 million. Perovskite customers span lithium batteries, EVs, OLEDs, and solar applications, including smart locks, EV glass sunroofs, BIPV facades, and satellite panels.
Management targets halving perovskite equipment capex by 2028 from current levels of RMB600-700 million per GW through larger single-machine capacity and automation.
Goldman Sachs maintains a Sell rating with a 12-month target price of RMB51.8, based on 7x 2027E EV/EBITDA at minus one standard deviation, discounted at a 10.6% cost of equity. Goldman believes the market overestimates near-term upside from overseas reshoring and domestic TOPCon upgrades while underappreciating longer-term weakness from anti-involution policies.