HSBC: Oil, AI & Tariff Uncertainty – Key Macro Charts
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HSBC highlights a confluence of macro risks as Middle East conflicts and trade policy shifts continue to disrupt global markets. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked roughly 20% of global crude oil and LNG shipments, briefly pushing oil prices near $120 per barrel before moderating. The next phase of the conflict remains uncertain, with sustained energy supply disruptions posing ongoing upside risks to inflation and downside risks to economic growth.
Concurrently, the US Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's use of emergency powers (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal. The administration subsequently implemented a 10% global tariff, which officials indicated could rise to 15%. This shift creates significant uncertainty around future trade agreements. Separately, negative AI-related headlines triggered an equity market rotation from financial and software sectors into real-economy stocks.
Global manufacturing and services PMIs rose in February, led by the US services ISM. However, US labor market signals were mixed, with non-farm payrolls surging 126,000 in January before falling 92,000 in February. Eurozone core inflation edged up to 2.4%, and US core PCE stood at 3%. In Asia, China's trade data surged early in the year, with the 15th Five-Year Plan targeting 4.5%–5.0% growth for 2026, supported by fiscal policy aimed at boosting domestic demand.