Morgan Stanley Metals & Mining: Critical Minerals Back in the Spotlight Ahead of US-China Talks

Morgan Stanley (North America metals and mining: In-Line) notes media reports that a small number of Chinese rare-earth suppliers halted shipments to some US companies from early August, fearing Beijing's potential retaliation after China counterlisted the Responsible Business Alliance—the body behind the Responsible Minerals Initiative—under its Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, barring Chinese suppliers from RBA/RMI engagement. Reuters reported other Chinese firms have also cut shipments amid broader geopolitical concerns or fears materials could be resold to banned end-users; some US companies have reportedly waited over six months for export licenses, with the US Treasury, USTR, State Department and China's MOFCOM declining comment. The analyst expects similar headlines into the September 24 US-China talks, which follow last October's one-year truce; export controls as leverage and Washington's push to reduce dependence on Chinese supply will be key debate areas, and licensing delays plus selective stoppages show leverage can be applied surgically. Context includes August's roughly $3 billion of US critical-minerals funding after decades of underinvestment left import dependence at record levels. In coverage, MP Materials (Overweight, $73 target, +35.7% implied upside versus $53.78 on September 3, 2026) is the best way to bet on a fully integrated domestic critical-materials supply chain, valued via sum-of-the-parts DCF (5% WACC to 2035/2038, then 7.1%).