CITIC Futures Macro High-Frequency Weekly: Property and Infrastructure Activity Subdued During Holidays
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Abstract
CITIC Futures' weekly macro high-frequency tracker finds property and infrastructure activity subdued during the holiday period. New-home sales, second-hand sales, and land transactions all declined month on month. In infrastructure, despite positive policy signals—including the Politburo meeting's emphasis on intensifying efforts and improving efficiency—physical workloads show no clear recovery: new contracts at the four major construction companies fell 18.6% year on year in July, and micro-level construction demand stayed weak even as special-purpose bond issuance reached 81.9% of the plan. The logic chain runs from policy signals to expectations of faster deployment of existing measures, with special bonds and policy-based financial instruments injecting funds in tandem and pointing to accelerated infrastructure workloads ahead.
Manufacturing remains resilient: auto and appliance retail rose seasonally, with air-conditioner volumes up 5.66% week on week, though some industrial demand softened, with copper and aluminum inventories rebuilding while hot-rolled coil inventories and margins declined. Weekly export gauges show port throughput down. The firm expects existing policies to gain speed in the third quarter, but current high-frequency data indicate the repair has yet to build momentum.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
Exhibit 9
Exhibit 10
