Nomura Asia Chart Alert: Nomura's Leading Index of Asian Exports
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Nomura's Asia Export Leading Index (LEI) is designed to anticipate regional export trends three to six months in advance by synthesizing global manufacturing PMIs, South Korean trade data, and semiconductor sales. The latest readings indicate the LEI is stabilizing, edging up from -0.5 to -0.3 in May 2026, though it remains in negative territory. This improvement is primarily driven by recovering global manufacturing PMIs and better South Korean export performance. Furthermore, semiconductor sales turned positive in April 2026, registering 2.1% year-on-year growth—the first positive reading since August 2025.
Overall Asian exports continue to contract, though the pace is moderating, narrowing from a 4.8% drop in April to an estimated 3.5% decline in May. Mainland China's exports also remain weak, falling 1.2% year-on-year in May. Nomura notes the LEI has reliably predicted cyclical turning points over the past year. A sustained rise above zero would confirm a genuine recovery cycle. However, significant downside risks persist, including escalating global trade frictions, potential tariff hikes, and persistent weakness in end-market demand. Consequently, while Asian exports may bottom out and mildly recover in the second half of 2026, the rebound trajectory will likely remain uneven and heavily dependent on the global macroeconomic environment.