Global Semi: South Korea Equipment Import Tracker (Jan 26): Imports Remain Elevated
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South Korea's semiconductor equipment imports totaled $3.2 billion in January 2026, representing a 66% year-over-year increase and remaining flat sequentially. The timing of the Lunar New Year holiday (January in 2025 versus February in 2026) influenced these figures.
Japanese equipment imports reached $614 million, up 39% year-over-year but down 21% month-over-month, with the three-month moving average rising 9%. Test equipment imports from Japan and Malaysia fell 46% sequentially but still surged 101% year-over-year. Lithography equipment imports from the Netherlands climbed 18% sequentially to 746 million euros, quadrupling year-over-year.
Using regression models based on historical correlations, Bernstein projects Advantest's March-quarter South Korea revenue to decline 3% sequentially, roughly aligning with consensus. ASML's Q1 system sales in South Korea are estimated at approximately 1.58 billion euros, down 5% sequentially. Tokyo Electron faces potential downside risk, with the model forecasting a 2% sequential revenue decline versus market expectations of 19% growth.
Samsung and SK Hynix significantly exceeded Q4 2025 capex guidance, indicating aggressive capacity expansion. Capital expenditure growth is outpacing equipment imports, suggesting increased spending on infrastructure and cleanrooms. Bernstein expects memory makers to substantially increase capital spending in 2026, supported by strong demand and pricing.
Bernstein rates Tokyo Electron (8035.JP), ASML (ASML.NA), Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), and SK Hynix (000660.KS) as Outperform, while Advantest (6857.JP) is rated Market-Perform.