Horizon Robotics (9660.HK): Rising NOA Penetration to Drive Journey 6 Adoption and Mix Upgrades; 1H26 Broadly In Line; Buy
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Goldman Sachs maintains Buy on Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) with a 12-month target of HK$13.12 (previously HK$13.14), implying 200.2% upside from HK$4.37 (September 3 close). 1H26 results were broadly in line with preliminaries: period profit turned positive at RMB3.8bn (1H25: RMB5.2bn loss), driven mainly by fair-value changes in financial liabilities, while revenue rose 33% YoY, with license and services up 53% and products and solutions up 15%. Despite 7M26 China passenger-vehicle retail falling 20% (NEV retail –12%), NOA penetration climbed to 46.8% in 1H26 with rising city-NOA contribution, which should drive adoption of the Journey 6 family (J6B/J6M/J6P) and mix upgrades toward higher-value advanced-driving solutions; J6B has expanded to joint-venture clients and entered mass production on GAC Toyota models. The next-generation Journey 7 SoC for premium L3/L4 is scheduled to tape out in early 2Q27E. On softer industry volumes, Goldman cut 2026E/2028–30E earnings by 3%–9%, widened the 2027 net loss to RMB176m and trimmed 2026E revenue 11% to RMB5.663bn. Valuation discounts 2030E EV/EBITDA back to 2027E, with the target multiple raised from 22.0x to 29.0x on faster AD penetration and refreshed comparables; COE stays 11.5%, implying 17.1x/9.8x 2027/28E EV/Sales.
Key exhibits
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