JPMorgan: Japan MLCC Industry — Growing Likelihood of Tight Supply/Demand; Murata and Taiyo Yuden Upgraded to Overweight
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JPMorgan has upgraded its outlook for the multi-layer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) industry, citing accelerating demand from AI servers and automotive electrification despite lingering consumer electronics weakness. The firm forecasts industry unit shipments will exceed 4.6 trillion units in 2026, reflecting 6% YoY growth, reaching 6.1 trillion units by 2030. Total market value is projected to hit US$25 billion by 2030, expanding at an 11% five-year CAGR.
Large-format MLCCs used in automotive, AI servers, and robotics are driving this growth. Their share of total supply is expected to surge from roughly 30% in 2025 to over 60% by 2030. AI servers and robotics represent major new catalysts. MLCC content per GPU is set to triple from 4,000 to 12,000 units over five years, while robotics offers massive longer-term unit potential. These premium applications command ASPs two to three times higher than standard components.
Capacity utilisation climbed to 87-88% in early 2026 and is expected to reach the critical 90% tightness threshold by mid-2026. This tightening is already prompting manufacturers to reject low-end distributor orders. JPMorgan upgraded Murata Manufacturing and Taiyo Yuden from Neutral to Overweight, maintaining Overweight ratings on TDK and SEMCO. If pricing stabilises through 2028, Murata's operating profit could reach JPY 800 billion and Taiyo Yuden's JPY 100 billion. The firm prefers Japanese manufacturers over Korean peers based on valuation advantages and product mix shifts.