HSBC: US Tariffs Are Here to Stay
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HSBC asserts that the tariff policies under the current US administration have transitioned from temporary shocks to a more permanent institutional framework. The overall effective US tariff rate currently stands at approximately 11%, with over 40% of imports subject to duties. The 10% global Section 122 tariff is scheduled to expire on July 24, 2026. However, the bank emphasizes that even if these specific tariffs lapse or face legal overturn, the US will likely utilize more robust legal tools like Section 301 and Section 232 to maintain elevated tariff structures. Consequently, businesses must continue navigating uncertainties surrounding product scopes, cumulative tax rates, and trade diversion. While the positive impact on domestic manufacturing employment remains limited, the inflationary transmission to core goods PCE and consumer prices is becoming increasingly evident. The US-China tariff truce, set to expire on November 10, 2026, alongside upcoming USMCA reviews and capacity investigations into multiple economies, represents critical future milestones for trade frictions. HSBC notes that trade diversion benefits countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan, functioning more as supply chain rerouting rather than a wholesale return of manufacturing to the United States.
Key exhibits
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