Goldman Sachs – US: BLS Preliminary Benchmark Revision Points to -79k Downward Adjustment for March 2026 Payrolls
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Key Views
Goldman Sachs expects the final revision to be revised up: QCEW source data have been revised up every quarter since 2019 (except H1 2020), and over the past six years preliminary estimates have averaged about 100k below final revisions. An upward revision of that size would leave the March 2026 payroll level roughly unchanged, contrasting with the large negative revisions of the previous two years, which likely reflected QCEW's difficulty capturing unauthorized workers—a problem eased by the sharp immigration slowdown of the past two years. The largest downward revisions were in retail trade, private education and health services, wholesale trade, and professional and business services.
Outlook
The final benchmark revision will be released with the January 2027 jobs report in February 2027. As the revision covers a distant period and does not affect household-survey signals such as unemployment, Goldman Sachs continues to view the US labor market as solid.