Jefferies | China Metals & Mining: Zijin Mining - A New Start with Consistency
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Jefferies maintains a Buy rating on Zijin Mining, raising the H-share target price to HKD 46.90 from HKD 38.10 and the A-share target price to RMB 43.30 from RMB 35.20. Founder and Chairman Chen Jinghe retired on January 1, 2026, with Vice Chairman Zou Laichang succeeding him. The management team consists of long-tenured employees, alleviating transition concerns.
The company's 2025 preliminary net profit guidance of RMB 51–52 billion aligns with expectations. The 2026 production guidance targets 105 tons of gold (+17% YoY) and 1.2 million tons of copper (+10% YoY), effectively achieving the 2028 gold target early. The 2026 lithium target is set at 120,000 tons, a significant increase from 25,000 tons in 2025, incorporating contributions from Lakkor Tso, 3Q, and Manono projects.
Driven by commodity price assumptions of USD 4,200 per ounce for gold and USD 5.15 per pound for copper, Jefferies raised its 2026 EPS forecast by 16% to RMB 2.54. The valuation is based on 17x 2026 PE. The risk-reward profile shows a 12-month upside/downside ratio of 1.53:1. Current spot prices for both metals exceed these assumptions, offering potential upside.