Bernstein Global Energy Storage: The Long View - Batteries to Only Get Better
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Bernstein highlights that battery technology has experienced remarkable advancements over the past decade and projects a continuous trajectory of improvement. Energy density has surged from 50Wh/kg to 350Wh/kg, enabling electric vehicles to comfortably exceed a 500-mile range. Concurrently, charging speeds have escalated from 1C to 12C, allowing vehicles to gain 400 kilometers of range in just five minutes. For stationary storage, system cycle life has expanded dramatically from 1,000 to 20,000 cycles, substantially reducing the total cost of energy storage.
Looking ahead, solid-state batteries represent the next major paradigm shift. This technology is expected to double energy density to 500Wh/kg, with mass commercialization anticipated to commence in 2027. Future chemistries, such as lithium-air and lithium-sulfur, could theoretically push energy density levels comparable to gasoline, though commercialization likely remains a decade away. Since 2010, overall battery costs have plummeted by over 90%, with LFP cell costs dropping below $70 per kWh. Sodium-ion batteries may further drive costs down toward $50 per kWh.
As performance metrics improve and costs decline, the total addressable market is rapidly expanding into new applications. These emerging use cases include heavy-duty trucking, maritime shipping, regional aviation, and humanoid robotics. Bernstein identifies CATL as its top pick in the sector. CATL's current Qilin battery mass-produced at 350Wh/kg and its 500Wh/kg condensed matter battery entering flight tests underscore its formidable technological leadership and world-class manufacturing capabilities.