BofA: Global Fund Manager Survey — Bearish and Long
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The April 2026 Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey reveals the most bearish investor sentiment since June 2025. Growth expectations experienced their sharpest decline since March 2022, while inflation expectations surged to their highest level since May 2021.
Despite this pervasive pessimism, 70% of investors do not anticipate a recession within the next twelve months. Cash levels held steady at 4.3%, and participants remain net overweight global equities, albeit at the lowest level since July 2025. The report suggests that if a ceasefire drives oil prices below $84 per barrel, this extreme bearishness could function as a contrarian positive signal for risk assets. However, interest rate cuts and earnings beats remain necessary conditions to sustain new market highs.
Macroeconomic expectations reflect 52% anticipating a soft landing, 32% expecting no landing, and only 9% predicting a hard landing. Regionally, capital rotated out of Japanese and European equities alongside global bank stocks during April. Investors maintain an overweight allocation in emerging market equities and increased their tech exposure. The most crowded trades are long oil and long semiconductors, both at 24%.
For the second quarter, bullish surprises would comprise falling oil prices, declining inflation, and interest rate cuts, favoring bonds, consumer discretionary, REITs, and Japan. Conversely, rising recession risks would negatively impact commodities, materials, and emerging markets.