Deutsche Bank: Global Commodities Outlook
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Key Views
The Fed's hawkish pressure on gold has limits. Despite speculative outflows, structural government debt expansion should support gold and silver higher by year-end. Palladium deficits persist as Russian primary supply is expected to decline roughly 10% (265 koz) this year.
Significant misalignments in crude supply, refinery utilization, and crack spreads require until at least year-end to normalize, after which substantial 2027 oversupply becomes the focus.
For industrial metals, tight supply underpins copper despite dollar strength and AI-related equity corrections. The price forecast rises from approximately $13,000/t in Q3 to $13,600/t in Q4. Aluminum is expected to rebound modestly to around $3,300/t in Q4, trending toward $3,000/t in 2027 as Gulf smelting capacity returns. Iron ore faces pressure from resilient seaborne exports and Simandou ramp-up.
Outlook
Gold and silver are projected higher by 2026 year-end. Copper tariffs updates expected in H2 may trigger volatility. PGM long-term demand verification points to catalytic vehicle sales, with an expected annual decline of 2.5% through 2035.
Recommended Securities
No specific securities recommended. Asset direction remains bearish USD, with gold and silver expected higher.
Key exhibits
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