Goldman Sachs China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker: September 11
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Goldman Sachs' China activity and policy tracker, now published weekly to monitor the impact of the energy price supply shock on the economy, covers four blocks of high-frequency indicators. Property remained soft: 30-city new home sales weakened last week and ran below a year ago (September 10: -9.4% yoy), while 16-city secondhand transactions were broadly flat but above last year (+4.2% yoy). Domestic flight volumes fell week over week (September 10: +0.4% yoy) with a higher cancellation rate, and major-city congestion rose 4.6% yoy, broadly in line with historical patterns. Fiscal issuance reached Rmb3.02tn of local special bonds YTD (68.7% of the annual quota) and Rmb7.95tn of central government bonds (67%); 'other' became the largest spending category for 1H26 special bond proceeds. Trade indicators firmed: port container throughput rose 4.9% yoy (September 7) and departing vessel cargo at 20 major ports gained 6.1% yoy (September 10). The oil demand nowcast slipped to 16.4mb/d. Interbank repo rates stayed anchored near the OMO target; the RMB appreciated against the USD and the CFETS basket, and a steadily rising countercyclical factor in the fixing suggests policymakers prefer slower appreciation versus the USD. The report lists major policy actions since July, including the September 10 PBOC/NFRA/CSRC press conference, and provides no growth forecasts, ratings, or target prices.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
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Exhibit 7
