Barclays: Energy—Updated E&P and Midstream Relative Value Scatters
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Barclays published an energy sector report providing 2026 estimates for investment-grade E&P, midstream, refining, and oilfield services, alongside updated relative value scatter plots and commodity inventory trends. For the week ending April 10, 2026, most energy subsectors outperformed US corporate bonds, though refining and midstream lagged, with refining being the worst performer. Year-to-date, E&P has been the strongest subsector. Top excess returners included FANG, HAL, and HP, while AR, LNG, and EQT underperformed.
Barclays' refining model reflects mark-to-market adjustments in forward curves. Although declining from the prior week, 2026 estimates remain well above consensus expectations for VLO and MPC, driven by refining capacity utilization above the 2021-2025 range and five-year average. Gasoline supply days are near the upper bound of the five-year range, while distillate days remain below the lower bound. Natural gas inventory days are near the five-year average and in surplus. Meanwhile, the NYMEX managed-money crude oil long/short ratio turned bearish—marking the first major shift since the start of the year and currently sitting below its five-year average.