Goldman Sachs Super Retail Group (SUL.AX): FY2026 Results Preview
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Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating on Super Retail Group (SUL.AX) and raises the 12-month target price from A$15.40 to A$15.60; at the current share price of A$13.58 the target implies 14.9% upside. FY2026 results are due August 20; Goldman Sachs expects EBIT roughly 1% below Visible Alpha consensus, with limited surprise risk given no trading update accompanied June's strategy day. FY2027 cost risk has been removed by an enterprise agreement locking in 3.25% wage growth, better than the 4.75% minimum-wage increase. Attention centres on the first-seven-weeks trading update: the bank models group like-for-like sales growth of about +1.3%, with Supercheap near +1.3%, Rebel +2.75%, Macpac +2.7% and BCF -1.0%. FY2026-28 EBIT estimates move -2% to +1% on lower gross margins and higher revenue, and roughly 20 store openings are expected in FY2027. Valuation remains inexpensive versus peers—about a 10% premium to the 10-year average forward P/E, versus 30-40% premiums for NCK, JBH and WES. No major capital-management announcement is expected (55-65% payout ratio) given A$30 million of inventory investment and increased Ignite project capex, and the shares have underperformed the ASX 200 by about 19% since January 2026.