Goldman Sachs China Retail: ASEAN Pop Toy Expert Call — Market Rationalizes, IP Preferences Diversify

Goldman Sachs hosted an expert call on March 2, 2026, examining the ASEAN pop toy market, focusing on Thailand. The expert noted that following explosive growth in 2023 and 2024, the market entered a normalized phase in 2025, with consumer behavior becoming more rational and IP preferences diversifying beyond concentrated mega-hits. Pop Mart plans rapid Thai expansion in 2026, targeting approximately 30 stores and expanding beyond Bangkok into cities like Chiang Mai and Phuket. Miniso is transitioning from a distribution to a direct-operated model, planning aggressive store openings featuring new formats. Top Toy recently entered the market via distribution but requires time to build brand momentum. Regarding IP cycles, Labubu has sustained popularity for over a year—far exceeding the typical six-month cycle—though its share of Pop Mart sales has moderated from peak levels of 80% to 40-50%, giving way to IPs like Twinkle Twinkle and Crybaby, which each account for 15-20%. The expert emphasized that sustaining 60-70% repurchase rates and creating new consumption scenarios, such as themed cafes, are more critical than aggressive store expansion. Pop toy consumers in Thailand span a wider age demographic than in China. Goldman Sachs maintains coverage with the following ratings: Miniso at Buy with ADR and H-share targets of $25 and HK$49, Pop Mart at Neutral with a target of HK$300, and Bloks Group at Neutral with a HK$63 target.