Goldman Sachs China Property Weekly Wrap: Week 4 Transactions Improve but Leading Indicators Slow
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Goldman Sachs reports on China's property market for the fourth week of January 2026. At the central policy level, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly released supportive measures for urban renewal. These introduce greater flexibility in land use conversion and streamline planning approvals.
Regarding market activity, primary market transaction areas improved by 14% week-over-week but declined 41% year-over-year. Secondary market transactions increased 5% week-over-week, posting a 15% year-over-year gain. However, leading indicators signal an impending slowdown: new home search activity dropped 1.6%, subscription-based secondary sales fell 8%, and physical viewings decreased by 14%. Pricing and sentiment remain stable, with the average transaction price climbing 3% week-over-week and seller expectations continuing to improve. Inventory months edged up to 29.7 months compared to the December 2025 average of 28.0 months.
Valuation metrics indicate broad-based weekly stock gains among covered developers. State-owned enterprise developers saw shares rise 6%, highlighted by China Jinmao (0817.HK, Buy) surging 14% and Greentown China (3900.HK, Buy) gaining 10%. Goldman forecasts overall weakness in January operational data. Top 100 developer pre-sales are projected to fall 31% year-over-year. Additionally, completions for January and February are expected to decline by a high single-digit percentage, while new starts face a mid-teens drop, reflecting continued contraction in the broader real estate sector.