JPMorgan: Asia Technology — Key Takeaways from NVIDIA 2026 GTC
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Following NVIDIA's 2026 GTC, JPMorgan notes a meaningful expansion in the data center AI total addressable market, though Asian hardware technology stocks may see limited immediate reaction. NVIDIA raised its demand estimate for Blackwell and Rubin systems through 2027 to at least USD 1 trillion, doubling the previous USD 500 billion forecast through 2026. The top five hyperscale customers now account for roughly 60% of NVIDIA's business. Rubin delivers a substantial performance leap, generating approximately 5x the revenue capacity of Blackwell at equivalent power, with token generation surging from 22 million to 700 million tokens per second within a 1GW footprint over two years.
NVIDIA introduced its LPU lineup based on Groq licensing, with LP30 entering production in 3Q26 on Samsung's 4nm node, targeting roughly 500,000 shipments in 2026. Rubin Ultra is slated for 2H27, while Feynman arrives in 2H28, introducing die stacking and custom HBM. Co-packaged optics adoption will progress gradually, with CPO entering Kyber scale-up only at the Feynman generation, potentially disappointing near-term industry expectations. NVIDIA also launched its STX storage platform, benefiting NAND manufacturers like Kioxia. TSMC remains the dominant foundry partner, with LP40 expected to transition to TSMC's N3 node.
Despite robust demand, market sentiment has shifted toward scrutinizing cloud service providers' AI capital expenditure sustainability beyond 2026-27. Consequently, Asian hardware stocks are unlikely to react strongly. JPMorgan maintains Overweight ratings on Asia Vital Components, Delta Electronics, Elite Material, Hon Hai, Kioxia, Quanta, Samsung Electronics, Silicon Motion, and TSMC, targeting beneficiaries across thermal management, power, CCL, ODM, and NAND demand.