Goldman Sachs: Japan Semiconductor Capital Equipment — Adjusting GSe Target Prices Amid Strong AI Demand; Buy Ratings on Tokyo Electron, Ebara, Disco, and Ulvac
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Goldman Sachs published a report on January 6, 2026, revising earnings estimates and raising 12-month target prices by an average of 7% for covered Japanese semiconductor capital equipment companies, driven by robust AI demand. The Goldman Sachs global team upgraded AI server shipment forecasts, boosting TSMC capital expenditure projections to $46 billion for CY26 (from $44 billion) and $54 billion for CY27 (from $50 billion), alongside increased CoWoS capacity forecasts accelerating through 2027. The firm maintains Buy ratings on Tokyo Electron (8035.T), Ebara (6361.T), Disco (6146.T), and Ulvac (6728.T). Front-end equipment leaders benefit from specific secular tailwinds: Tokyo Electron from expanding memory investment, particularly DRAM; Ebara from advanced logic CMP layer growth; and Ulvac from strong orders at Chinese and Taiwanese foundries. For back-end equipment, Disco is highlighted on the Conviction List, as generative AI silicon-bridge packaging technologies require extensive dicing and grinding equipment. Conversely, Advantest, Kokusai Electric, and Lasertec are rated Neutral, while Screen Holdings and Tokyo Seimitsu receive Sell ratings due to limited profitability improvement visibility and structural cost pressures. Equipment customers are requesting earlier deliveries, brightening the 2026 outlook for equipment manufacturers.