UBS Daily Commodities: US and Iran Resume Strikes; Oil Prices Rise
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UBS's September 1 commodities daily reports oil higher as the US and Iran resumed military strikes: Brent rose 1.2% to $90.48/bbl and WTI 2.6% to $82.06/bbl, with President Trump pledging further strikes on Iran after the first attack in a month.
Iron ore gained on freight and fuel costs—61% Fe China North CFR up 1.1% to $99.70/dry tonne—while the low-vol hard coking coal premium firmed 1.0% to $269.20/t and Newcastle thermal coal held at $133.25/t. Lithium led: GFEX lithium rose 3.2% to 161,000/t and spodumene concentrate 1.8% to $2,315/t. The LME was closed for the UK bank holiday; copper slipped 0.1% to $6.48/lb, aluminum held at $1.47/lb, and nickel eased 0.5% to $7.61/lb. Gold fell 0.1% to $4,448/oz near two-week lows as investors weighed further Middle East-driven inflation.
Chile's July copper output fell 9.4% year-on-year on adverse weather; Mizuho sued iron ore trader Radiant World. Liontown posted A$147 million EBITDA and A$93 million statutory NPAT with weak guidance pre-released; UBS stays Neutral, cutting its NPV-driven target 3% to A$1.40 (August 31 close A$1.23), with production at the low end and costs at the high end of forecasts and the 4mtpa expansion FID expected in the September 2026 quarter.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
