Real Estate Sector Analysis: Second-Hand Home Transaction Activity Remains Elevated
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Sinolink Securities' weekly property monitor (Aug 29–Sep 4, 2026) finds a still-divergent market. New-home momentum is deteriorating more slowly: 47-city sales reached 2.841 million sqm, down 0.9% week over week, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to 13.6%. Second-hand activity is stabilizing at the bottom: 22-city volumes fell seasonally week over week while YoY growth widened to 9.7%. By tier, tier-1 and tier-2 new-home sales growth recovered to +17.3% and -3.3%, while tier-3 slumped 35.9% YoY. On supply, September listings across 26 key cities fell 0.7% MoM and 1.8% YoY, edging up 0.2% in the latest week yet remaining near annual lows—pressure has eased and stays controllable. Forward indicators are strong: September-to-date second-hand transactions in those 26 cities are up 37% YoY, showing demand still improving; price trends therefore now hinge on supply. Entering the traditional 'Golden September, Silver October' peak season, the report judges that if listings stay stable or are absorbed further, second-hand listing-price declines should narrow further this year and transaction prices could stabilize. Risks: an unexpected rebound in listings, sharply falling rents, or a macro downturn that weakens household expectations and delays stabilization.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
