UBS China Consumer: Property and Consumer Tour Takeaways - Early Recovery, Persistent Divergence
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UBS conducted a three-day property and consumer field tour across Shanghai and Shenzhen from March 9-11, 2026, engaging 16 experts, corporate management teams, and store operators. Despite broad caution among property participants, investor interest is growing in companies capable of navigating a deflationary environment.
Moutai's wholesale price declined from approximately RMB 1,700 per bottle pre-holiday to around RMB 1,500, nearing the official retail price of RMB 1,499. This drop stems from a major distributor bundling Feitian and premium Moutai to destock, increasing market supply. The price correction may suppress demand on the i-Moutai platform, a key volume growth driver for 2026.
Retail polarisation is evident. Outdoor sports, IP toys, and jewellery represent the three major expansion categories, while traditional fashion and luxury brands are optimising store counts. YUMC maintains its Q1 positive same-store sales growth guidance, supported by flexible store formats and an accelerated franchising model. Chow Tai Fook's new concept store on Shanghai's Nanjing Road doubled sales year-on-year in January-February 2026, with average transaction values rising by mid-double digits to RMB 15,000.
Sun Art Retail's same-store sales remain negative in March but are improving sequentially, with the new CEO targeting a 1.5% net margin within three years. Miniso's IP Land store achieved RMB 200 million in sales within 15 months, with IP products accounting for 60-70% of revenue.
Most preferred names include Muyuan, DONGPENG Beverage, China Resources Beer, Budweiser APAC, YUM China, Haier, Midea, Miniso, Li Ning, and Anta. Least preferred include Shuijingfang, Nongfu Spring, Yonghui, Juewei, Smoore, Robam, and Gree.