Goldman Sachs: Kioxia Holdings (285A.T) IR Day - NAND Market to Sustain Stable High Profits
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Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on Kioxia Holdings (285A.T) following the company's Investor Day, reinforcing the thesis that the NAND flash memory market can sustain stable, high-level profitability. The report highlights a structural improvement in industry supply and demand dynamics, which has significantly reduced price volatility and supported consistent earnings for memory manufacturers.
Kioxia's management expressed strong confidence in the 2026 demand outlook, projecting NAND bit demand growth of 20-25%. This expansion is primarily driven by artificial intelligence applications, particularly the surging need for enterprise-grade solid-state drives. The company's enterprise SSD shipments have already increased to represent 30% of its total output, with a targeted rise to 40% by 2025. Furthermore, management outlined a clear cost reduction roadmap, featuring the mass production of the 1YY-layer node in 2026 and the introduction of CBA technology in 2027.
Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy recommendation with an unchanged target price of 2,500 Japanese yen. Based on 2027 EV/EBITDA of 8x, this target implies approximately 39% upside from the current trading level of 1,800 yen. Key risks to the investment thesis include a sharper-than-expected decline in NAND pricing and potential delays in the company's technology transition timeline.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
