Morgan Stanley: China Industrial Automation Tracker—Solid Year-End Growth
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Morgan Stanley's December 2025 tracking of China's automation and general equipment orders reveals solid year-end momentum, consistent with the manufacturing PMI recovering to 50.1. Domestic players generally outpaced foreign peers in order growth. Invech Technology's December orders surged over 30% year-on-year, accelerating from the 20%+ growth in November and beating expectations. Yizumi's new orders grew 20%+, up from 10%+. Tsugami China saw order volume rise 41%, supported by AI liquid cooling and automotive demand.
Among the four major foreign players—Yaskawa, Panasonic, Delta, and ABB—December China servo and low-voltage AC drive sales both increased 8% year-on-year. This marks a significant improvement from the 4% and 1% growth recorded on November 25. Haitian International and Guomao both registered teen-percentage order growth. Downstream demand remained robust across logistics, batteries, electronics, automotive, machine tools, and semiconductors.
The report maintains its expectation for a mild upward cycle in the automation market for 2026. It anticipates that the OEM market will outperform the project-based market, primarily driven by exports and capital expenditure. The analysis did not highlight specific downside risks to this outlook.