Goldman Sachs DISCO (6146.T): Conference Call: Multiple Growth Drivers to Fuel Higher Shipments, Led by Generative AI; Buy
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Goldman Sachs held a conference call with the DISCO investor relations team on February 3, 2026, to discuss demand trends across generative AI applications and other growth drivers. To meet robust equipment demand primarily from generative AI, DISCO has resumed production support staffing. Goldman expects shipments to rise significantly from the current quarterly run rate of JPY 100 to 110 billion starting in fiscal 2027.
Multiple growth engines, including advanced packaging for generative AI, hybrid bonding for 3D-NAND and BS-PDN applications, and consumables, should drive earnings beyond market consensus. HBM-related shipments declined sequentially in the third quarter as expected, given concentrated first-half deliveries, though the market remains tight with no demand slowdown. Logic and advanced packaging applications showed significant year-over-year shipment growth.
OSAT capacity utilization rose further on strong new smartphone sales, boosting consumables demand. Fourth-quarter shipment drivers include smartphones, traditional memory with SDBG process adoption, and increased contract packaging orders for generative AI. Power semiconductor recovery remains premature. For hybrid bonding, DISCO expects 3D-NAND to drive equipment demand over the next two to three years, while high-bandwidth flash could emerge as a new catalyst. Goldman maintains a Buy rating with a JPY 68,000 target price, currently implying 1.6% upside.