UBS Indian Autos Dec'25: Diverging Retail Trends
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Indian auto retail trends diverged sharply in December 2025. Two-wheeler (2W) retail rose 10% year-on-year, supported by a weak December 2024 base (down 18%), with internal combustion engine models up 9% and electric two-wheelers (e2W) surging 33%. Passenger vehicle (PV) retail jumped 29%, driven by robust post-GST-reduction demand.
Within two-wheelers, Hero MotoCorp lost 530 basis points of market share as TVS and Royal Enfield gained 250 and 170 bps respectively. TVS leveraged its strength across electrification, premiumization, and scooters to overtake Hero in wholesale volumes, dispatching 461,000 units versus Hero's 456,000. Electric two-wheeler penetration edged up to 4.0% from 3.8% in November, though it remained below July's peak of 5.4%. TVS held the top e2W position with a 25.7% share.
On the passenger vehicle side, Maruti Suzuki wholesaled 217,000 units, up 22% year-on-year, with domestic growth of 37% offset by a 31% export decline tied to a one-time shipping delay expected to reverse in Q4 FY26. Mahindra & Mahindra posted 23% wholesale growth, while Tata Motors managed only 13% domestic growth despite the new Sierra launch, and Hyundai was flat year-on-year with a 60 bps retail share loss.
Medium and heavy commercial vehicle retail climbed 29%, and light commercial vehicles rose 23%. Tractor wholesales were strong, with M&M up 39% to 32,000 units and Escorts up 38% to 7,600 units. Inventory days suggest two-wheeler OEMs carry elevated stock (Hero approximately 66 days, TVS approximately 45 days), while passenger vehicle inventories remain healthy (Maruti approximately 14 days, Hyundai approximately 20 days), signaling potential wholesale adjustments ahead for two-wheeler manufacturers.