Goldman Sachs | Japan Healthcare: Roche/Galderma Results Read-Across: Chugai's Core Products Solid; Concerns Linger for China Diagnostics
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Goldman Sachs analyzes the read-across from Roche and Galderma first-quarter results for its covered Japanese healthcare companies. For Chugai Pharmaceutical (Neutral, target price JPY 8,926), core product performance remains solid. Hemlibra exceeded Goldman Sachs estimates by 7% and consensus by 4%, driven by strong sales outside the US. Actemra sales declined year-over-year due to biosimilar competition in Europe and the US but still beat estimates by 5% and consensus by 9%. Alecensa also outperformed estimates by 6% and consensus by 4%.
Galderma reported 1Q Nemluvio sales of $185 million, aligning with the $185 million estimate and the $183 million consensus. The sequential decline from 4Q25 reflects headwinds from government channels and insurance renewals.
Conversely, Roche's diagnostics division faced challenges, missing consensus estimates by 3% due to ongoing pressures from medical pricing reforms in China. This dynamic sustains concerns regarding the operating environment for Sysmex (Buy, target price JPY 1,385). Despite these lingering diagnostic headwinds in China, Goldman Sachs maintains its fundamental ratings and targets for both covered entities. Chugai is supported by the sustained outperformance of its core pharmaceutical portfolio, while Sysmex remains favored over the longer term despite near-term diagnostic market volatility.