Macro and semiconductor voices from X, presented in their original language. Updated Jul 23, 10:53.
SVera Rubin NVL72 vs GB200 NVL72? Inference TCO & Architecture Analysis: Rubin LUT Based Tensor Core, Feynman, Rack Scale, Perf Per MegaWatt, Perf Per Dollar, Software Improvements, Public Rubin Software, PyTorch, vLLM, OpenAI Triton https://t.co/3ar4yn6bR0
T🔬Anthropic remains well ahead in ARR, but OpenAI has recently accelerated. TickerTrends is now tracking Anthropic at $74.1B versus OpenAI at $41.3B, with OpenAI’s run rate rising from $33.0B in May to $41.3B in July. https://t.co/C8zxNpPavX
SVera Rubin NVL72 vs GB200 NVL72? Inference TCO & Architecture Analysis: Rubin LUT Based Tensor Core, Feynman, Rack Scale, Perf Per MegaWatt, Perf Per Dollar, Software Improvements, Public Rubin Software, PyTorch, vLLM, OpenAI Triton Read Now: https://t.co/3ar4yn5E1s
JSCookie cutter doesn't cut it anymore. Vik Malyala on how @Supermicro became the go-to tier one OEM for startups building unconventional server architectures, from PCIe topologies to ARM-based compute. "Supermicro is the only vendor, sort of tier one OEM, who's able to both have the supply chain deliver anywhere in the world, whether it be US or Asia or Europe or Latam even, but also with a very unique server architecture. It's not just cookie cutter." "When you talk about the PCIe accelerators, these are the ones that are using these accelerators as a part of the system. And I have seen customers looking to have different PCIe topologies, whether it's a single root complex or multi root complex." "Initially we started with both Intel and AMD as a processor architecture to support these accelerators, but now we have added the new ARM based platforms as well. So now people can have an option on the compute platform as well as what accelerators they can support."
MDT🔬$RDDT owns the scarcer data. $GOOG controls the larger consumer interface. Our proprietary usage data shows why that distinction matters, and why Google still holds the stronger near-term negotiating position. Full note: https://t.co/ojyXtWwx6D https://t.co/ZIEKFSSNeD
T🔬Google $GOOG needs Reddit’s data. Reddit still needs Google’s distribution. Our proprietary usage data suggests Google currently has the stronger hand in the $RDDT negotiation. Full note: https://t.co/ojyXtWwx6D https://t.co/iiKV7ofCpp
T🔬We’re tracking Anthropic ARR at $74.3B as of July 22, with the pace of growth beginning to slow. Yipit estimated $69B on July 10 and is expected to update tomorrow. Anthropic has not publicly confirmed a figure since its $47B run-rate disclosure. @jukan05 https://t.co/g7BZUNfRmV
IAWFH is nice. Can go to the park and hang out with friends. https://t.co/ONpE5lbZiv
T🔬$GOOG $GOOGL GCP developer activity is accelerating. Our tracker has YoY growth at +98.3%, the strongest reading in the series, up ~1,100bps in three weeks. https://t.co/z7PjY1vdLa
PLThis Google earnings release makes all the fear in semis from the past month look hilariously stupid. They will all print crazy earnings, from $LITE to $COHR to $SNDK to $NBIS. - Cloud revenue growth is accelerating - Gemini 950M MAUs vs. 750M in Q1 - Raise 2026 capex guidance to ~$200B from ~$185B Don't forget who held your hand through choppy waters, anon.
K🦑Alright boys, enough with $GOOGL. $NOK reports tonight. THE SHOW GOES ON
K🦑$GOOG CAPEX INCREASE "We are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to 195 to $205 billion, up from our previous estimate of 180 to $190 billion. The increase in the range is primarily due to an acceleration in the delivery of capacity to meet growing demand, as we previously shared, we continue to expect our CapEx to increase significantly in 2027 and will provide more details at a later date in."
KAlphabet raised guidance already back in April, and management's language has been consistent since: "The risk of underinvesting is dramatically greater than the risk of overinvesting." Demand still exceeds supply. "Engineers within Google are now expected to use AI to generate code. But when they try to use AI, they often hit capacity constraints due to competition for computing power within Google." Nothing about tonight points toward less. IMO
S$GOOGL updates FY 2026 capex guidance: To $195B-$205B. Up from $180B-$190B. Google is also expected to significantly increase capex in 2027. This is perhaps the most bullish read through on upstream semis from a hyperscaler. https://t.co/dXiI0Ien8X
PL$GOOGL upgrade 2026 capex guidance to $195B-$205B. Up from previous estimate of $180B-$190B. "We expect our capex to increase significantly in 2027" $300B capex in 2027...?
SBREAKING: WE KNOW PRODUCTS IS A PART OF GOOGLE CLOUD AND NOT THE MAJORITY OF REVENUE TPUs got sold in the quarter, services margin is a bit weak, but very very strong print
SBREAKING: GOOGLE CLOUD GENERATES REVENUE PRIMARILY FROM THE SALE OF TPU SYSTEMS! $GOOG Google Cloud has shifted from being a cloud to a hardware vendor, and this quarter was the first time they said "primarily" with meaningful language change. Is this Google bowing out of the race as they shift to becoming an NVIDIA competitor versus a hyperscaler? More on the call soon 🤞
S$GOOGL now has 950M monthly Gemini users and processes 22B API tokens/min. Compared to 750M back in February. Absurd growth adding 200 million more users in a few months. Kinda explains why they ran out of compute, then cut allocations to $META and others. Very unlikely AI capex will slow down given.
S$GOOGL reported earnings today: EPS: $9.11 actual vs $2.91 expected - retail reactions to EPS blowout is kinda just accounting noise, since $SPCX, Anthropic, and others were likely large contributors. Revenue: $119.7B actual vs. $116.98B expected Google Cloud Revenue: $24.77B +82% Y/Y, vs. 63-65% expected ($22.2-$22.6B) - this is a very large beat and most material part so far. Cloud Operating Income: ~$8.81B, implying 35.6% margin vs. 32.9% Q1. Capex: $44.92B vs ~$44.15B (basically in line). So initial read through is Google Cloud accelerating growth with expanding margins is genuinely bullish for AI demand. Their former $180-$190B capex guidance is already extremely large, and as long as we get around these numbers in the earnings call + forward projections... Should be good to go for $LITE and the other optics/networking trade. (eg. last earnings, they said DC and networking would be ~40% of capex spend). Hyperscaler earnings transcripts are probably the most important thing to pay attention to with the AI capex trade. And that should be in 3 minutes.
K🦑Google Cloud grew 82% to $24.8B, with operating margin at 35.6% against 20.7% a year ago. That validates customers are running workloads and paying for them. Usage at that scale is what keeps a $180B to $190B capex year defensible, and cloud infra is where that gets proven rather than promised. The release defines Cloud product revenue as TPU system sales and inventory went from $2.4B in December to $10.0B in June. On the April call management said third-party TPU deliveries begin this year with the majority of revenue recognized in 2027 $GOOG
MD82 👀. Importantly, data Center completion is around ~20mo (h/t @WarrenPies), which means that a lot of the capex $$ spent so far is only now starting to generate revenue…
GM$GOOG Cloud up 82% y/y vs Street at up 63% and the stock is flat because fractional misses Search and Margins Search: Street was looking for 17.1% growth, came in at 16.8%. Operating Margins: Came in at 34.0% vs. Street at 34.5%. My take: Given what we now know, the stock should be up tomorrow. The Cloud number is the most important number and it was a massive beat. Now we have to wait for the call.
