高盛：GOAL Kickstart：地缘政治与商品动荡——金属延续动能，原油下行趋势恢复

原标题：Goldman Sachs GOAL KICKSTART：Geopolitics and commodity commotion — metals extend momentum while oil downtrend resumes

摘要

上周政治和地缘政治新闻主导市场，推动商品大幅波动。美国司法部对美联储的调查打压美元，提振贵金属，白银周涨幅达+11.6%。美国Q4财报季开始，银行盈利稳健支撑风险偏好。美国核心CPI低于预期（月环比+0.24%，同比2.64%），为2021年3月以来最低；初请失业金人数降至198k。特朗普对欧洲经济体的格陵兰相关关税声明打压风险偏好，进一步提振贵金属。商品年初至今表现与去年类似：黄金和金属上涨，而原油因供应过剩处于下行趋势，偶尔因地缘政治冲击出现峰值。高盛维持温和看多风险立场，对商品保持中性，偏好贵金属而非能源。高盛商品团队预测布伦特/WTI原油将因供应浪潮趋势下行至56/52美元/桶，预计LME铜价到2026年12月将跌至11,000美元/吨。

主要观点

• 地缘政治新闻主导市场，推动商品大幅波动，美元承压。
• 白银上周收涨+11.6%，贵金属受益于美元走弱。
• 美国Q4财报季开始，银行盈利稳健，支撑风险偏好。
• 美国核心CPI月环比+0.24%，同比2.64%，低于预期，为2021年3月以来最低。
• 初请失业金人数降至198k。
• 特朗普对欧洲经济体的格陵兰相关关税声明打压风险偏好，进一步提振贵金属。
• 商品年初至今表现：黄金和金属上涨，原油因供应过剩处于下行趋势，偶尔因地缘政治冲击出现峰值。
• 美元/原油相关性目前非常正相关，部分因为美国现在是净石油出口国。
• 自解放日以来，投资者急于减少投资组合中的美国资产主导地位，支撑黄金、贵金属和新兴市场资产。
• MSCI新兴市场和新兴市场材料股票上周录得最大回报/波动率，其次是白银和黄金。
• 铜因投机性流入自11月以来上涨，但在第232条关税推迟后回吐部分涨幅。
• 高盛维持温和看多风险立场，对商品保持中性，偏好贵金属而非能源。
• 高盛商品团队预测布伦特/WTI原油趋势下行至56/52美元/桶，LME铜价到2026年12月跌至11,000美元/吨。

论述逻辑

地缘政治事件（美国司法部调查、特朗普关税声明）打压美元，推动贵金属上涨；同时美国经济数据（核心CPI低于预期、就业强劲）和银行财报支撑风险偏好。商品内部出现分化：金属（黄金、白银、铜）因美元走弱、投机性流入和去美国化趋势获得动能，而原油因供应过剩持续下行。高盛基于政策宽松、投资者仓位上升和新兴市场央行需求，认为贵金属存在正偏斜，因此维持温和看多风险、商品中性、偏好贵金属的观点。

关键展望

• 本周关注世界经济论坛和围绕格陵兰的会议。
• 下周FOMC会议前关键数据为（延迟的）10月/11月PCE读数（高盛预测月环比+0.16% 10月/0.2% 11月）。
• 高盛商品团队预测布伦特原油趋势下行至56美元/桶，WTI至52美元/桶，LME铜价到2026年12月跌至11,000美元/吨。
• 报告未明确其他未来验证点或时间窗口。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Momentum in metals remains very strong

Exhibit 2: Oil realized correlation with the Dollar Index is at the highest level since 2001

Exhibit 3: EM equities, metals and oil-exposed FX rising despite the stronger dollar

Exhibit 4: Copper pickup benefited metals-exposed equities in US and Europe

Exhibit 5: Metals-exposed FX considerably picked up vs. USD

Exhibit 6: Geopolitical risk pricing

Exhibit 7: GOAL asset allocation recommendations and GS cross-asset forecasts

Exhibit 8: Local currency returns and return to vol ratios (1 week)

Exhibit 9: Local currency returns and return to vol ratios (YTD)

Exhibit 10: Risk appetite indicator level and momentum factors

Exhibit 11: Risk appetite indicators for different asset classes

Exhibit 12: Cyclicals vs. defensives 1-year rolling z-score across regions

Exhibit 13: Sub-components of equity risk appetite indicator

Exhibit 14: GS RAI principal component

Exhibit 15: PC1: Global growth factor vs. Global MAP Score

Exhibit 16: PC2: Monetary policy factor vs. US 10-year TIPS yield

Exhibit 17: PC3: Dollar factor vs. USD TWI

Exhibit 18: 60/40 equity/bond portfolio performance across regions last 12m

Exhibit 19: Risk parity portfolio performance across regions last 12m

Exhibit 20: 60/40 portfolio with volatility target strategies overlay vs. US 60/40 portfolio

Exhibit 21: 60/40 portfolio with volatility target strategies and momentum overlay vs. US 60/40

Exhibit 22: USD cash credit vs. US equity

Exhibit 23: USD synthetic credit vs. US equity

Exhibit 24: EUR cash credit vs. European equity

Exhibit 25: EUR synthetic credit vs. European equity

Exhibit 26: EM cash credit vs. EM equity

Exhibit 27: EM synthetic credit vs. EM equity

Exhibit 28: Cross-asset valuation table

Exhibit 29: Credit spread minus equity risk premium estimates across markets

Exhibit 30: Equity vs. credit relative valuation

Exhibit 31: Current yields across assets and their percentile to the past 10 years

Exhibit 32: Past week change in yields across assets

Exhibit 33: YTD change in yields across assets

Exhibit 34: Percentile of sentiment indicators

Exhibit 35: Average percentile of sentiment indicators

Exhibit 36: Cumulative fund flows across assets

Exhibit 37: Risky vs. safe assets fund flows

Exhibit 38: YTD cross-asset global fund flows ($Bn)

Exhibit 39: YTD cross-asset global fund flows (% of AUM)

Exhibit 40: 1-week cross-asset global fund flows

Exhibit 41: 4-week cross-asset global fund flows

Exhibit 42: Equity net long positioning

Exhibit 43: Currency net long positioning

Exhibit 44: Commodity net long positioning

Exhibit 45: US Treasury net long positioning

Exhibit 46: 3m rolling equity vol/CDS correlation

Exhibit 47: 3m rolling commodity price correlations with different assets

Exhibit 48: 3m rolling equity/bond correlation of weekly returns

Exhibit 49: 3m rolling equity/FX correlation of weekly returns

Exhibit 50: Cross-asset correlation matrix