高盛：韩国每周启动：KOSPI 因一季度GDP超预期和市场广度扩大而上涨4.6%创历史新高

原标题：Goldman Sachs Korea Weekly Kickstart：KOSPI broke through to a new all~time high on 4.6% gain wow amid better than expected Q1 GDP and broadening market breadth

摘要

KOSPI 本周上涨4.6%至6475.63点，创历史新高，得益于一季度GDP环比增长1.7%（超预期）和市场广度扩大。造船、机械和科技板块领涨，而制药、保险和证券板块表现落后。外国投资者继续净卖出KOSPI，主要流出科技和汽车板块。韩国盈利季节开局良好，53%的公司业绩超预期，高于历史平均水平。医疗保健、金融和工业板块盈利超预期比例最高。2026/27年盈利增长预期持续上调。韩国回流投资账户（RIA）推出后，账户数超16万，余额达7.06亿美元，但零售投资者仍持有超1770亿美元美国股票。2026年至今，零售投资者净买入150亿美元，成为最大净买家。高盛预计KOSPI将继续跑赢美国股指，零售资金流入将保持支撑。

主要观点

• KOSPI 本周上涨4.6%至6475.63点，创历史新高，受一季度GDP环比增长1.7%（超预期）和市场广度扩大推动。
• 造船（+13.9%）、机械（+12.5%）和科技（+6.2%）板块本周表现最佳；制药（-2.6%）、保险（-2.6%）和证券（-2.0%）板块表现最差。
• 外国投资者净卖出KOSPI 1.803万亿韩元，主要流出科技和汽车板块（Exhibit 40）。
• 韩国盈利季节开局良好，53%的公司业绩超预期，高于历史平均水平（Exhibit 2）。
• 医疗保健、金融和工业板块盈利超预期比例最高（Exhibit 3）。
• 2026/27年盈利增长预期持续上调（Exhibit 4）。
• 韩国回流投资账户（RIA）推出后，账户数超16万，余额达7.06亿美元（Exhibit 5）。
• 零售投资者仍持有超1770亿美元美国股票（Exhibit 6）。
• 2026年至今，零售投资者净买入150亿美元，成为最大净买家（Exhibit 9）。
• 零售投资者经纪账户存款余额保持在126万亿韩元高位（Exhibit 10）。
• 高盛预计KOSPI将继续跑赢美国股指，零售资金流入将保持支撑（Exhibit 12）。

论述逻辑

报告从KOSPI创新高切入，指出上涨动力来自一季度GDP超预期和市场广度扩大。随后分析板块表现和资金流向，强调外国投资者净卖出而零售投资者净买入。接着聚焦盈利季节，显示超预期比例高于历史均值，并带动盈利增长预期上调。最后引入回流投资账户（RIA）作为政策变量，论证其虽已吸引一定资金，但零售投资者海外持仓仍巨大；然而2026年零售资金已转向国内ETF，且KOSPI相对美股表现更优，因此零售资金有望持续支撑韩国股市。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出高盛预计KOSPI可能继续跑赢美国股指，零售资金流入将保持支撑。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: KOSPI earnings expectation for Q1’26 has improved led by Energy, Info Tech and Materials sectors

Exhibit 2: Korea’s earnings season started broadly better than consensus estimates, with 53% beats in the early stage of reporting

Exhibit 3: Earnings have been better, led by Health Care, Financials and Industrials

Exhibit 4: Amid better than expected earnings Q1 season so far, earnings growth for 2026/27 continued to improve

Exhibit 5: Since the launch of RIA accounts, total RIA balance has increased to US$706mn from $35mn

Exhibit 6: However, retail investors still own more than US$177bn in the US equity market

Exhibit 7: Amid efforts to reshore retail investors’ flows back into Korea from the US, retail investors flows to the US have been weakening since February

Exhibit 8: 2026 YTD, retail investors’ inflows into ETFs tracking domestic equity market have been greater than ETFs tracking foreign equity market

Exhibit 9: Retail investors have been the largest net buyers in 2026 compared to Dil and foreign investors

Exhibit 10: Retail investors’ brokerage accounts deposit balance remained elevated

Exhibit 11: The number of active stock trading accounts continued to rise

Exhibit 12: As KOSPI continued to outperform the US equity market index, retail inflows are likely to stay supportive

Exhibit 13: Summary of the past week’s performance

Exhibit 14: Summary of year-to-date flows

Exhibit 15: Equity inflows to 5 AEJ markets

Exhibit 16: Equity inflows to 5 AEJ markets

Exhibit 17: Bond inflows to 4 AEJ markets

Exhibit 18: Bond inflows to 4 AEJ markets

Exhibit 19: Housing prices and rental prices

Exhibit 20: Living expense price changes

Exhibit 21: Daily Financial Condition Index

Exhibit 22: Korea Economic Forecasts

Exhibit 23: Performance of Korean and regional equity markets

Exhibit 24: KOSPI and MSCI regional index

Exhibit 25: Weekly sector performance relative to KOSPI

Exhibit 26: Historical trend of monthly KOSPI earnings momentum

Exhibit 27: Weekly earnings momentum for KOSPI and selected sectors

Exhibit 28: KOSPI earnings revisions by sector

Exhibit 29: Valuation summary for regional equity markets

Exhibit 30: 12-month forward P/E and P/B for KOSPI, since Jan 2008

Exhibit 31: 12-month forward P/E for MSCI Korea, since Jan 2008

Exhibit 32: Current 12m forward P/E of KOSPI and selected sectors since Jan 2006

Exhibit 33: 12-m forward P/E for KOSPI and selected sectors since Jan 2006

Exhibit 34: MXKR valuation discount relative to MSCI AC World NTM P/E

Exhibit 35: MXKR valuation discount relative to MXAPJ NTM P/E

Exhibit 36: NTM P/E Valuation Discount vs. 10-year History by Sector

Exhibit 37: P/B Valuation Discount vs. 10-year History by Sector

Exhibit 38: 2025 & 2026 year-to-date KOSPI purchase by investor type

Exhibit 39: KOSPI net equity transactions by investor type (KRW bn)

Exhibit 40: (未在文本中明确列出，但Exhibit 40被引用)