高盛：中国每周快报：市场下跌1%；第四季度GDP符合预期，12月活动数据喜忧参半

原标题：Goldman Sachs CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART Markets edged down 1%； Q4 GDP in line with expectations amid mixed December activity data

摘要

本周MSCI中国和沪深300均下跌0.6%。第四季度GDP同比增长4.5%，符合预期；12月零售销售同比增长0.9%，基本符合预期；工业增加值同比增长5.2%，略高于共识；固定资产投资（年初至今）同比下降3.8%，低于预期。2025年全国新生儿数量创历史新低，为792万，同比下降17%。70城平均新房价格环比下跌4.1%，跌幅扩大。南向资金本周净流入30亿美元，年初至今净流入90亿美元。高盛将于1月27-28日在香港举办全球宏观会议亚太2026。报告还提供了第四季度盈利预览、资金流更新和专有模型/晴雨表等图表。

主要观点

• MSCI中国和沪深300本周均下跌0.6%。
• 第四季度GDP同比增长4.5%，符合预期。
• 12月零售销售同比增长0.9%，基本符合预期。
• 12月工业增加值同比增长5.2%，略高于共识。
• 12月固定资产投资（年初至今）同比下降3.8%，低于预期。
• 2025年全国新生儿数量为792万，同比下降17%，创历史新低。
• 70城平均新房价格12月环比下跌4.1%，跌幅加速。
• 南向资金本周净流入30亿美元，年初至今净流入90亿美元。
• 何立峰总理1月20日在达沃斯世界经济论坛发表主旨演讲。
• 财政部1月20日举行新闻发布会，重申2026年维持积极财政政策。
• 中国证监会发布公募基金业绩基准指引，自3月1日起生效。
• 高盛将于1月27-28日在香港举办全球宏观会议亚太2026。
• 报告包含第四季度盈利预览、资金流更新和专有模型/晴雨表等图表。

论述逻辑

报告首先总结本周市场表现（MSCI中国和沪深300均下跌0.6%），然后分析关键宏观数据（第四季度GDP符合预期，12月活动数据喜忧参半），接着回顾政策动态（何立峰达沃斯讲话、财政部积极财政政策、证监会基金指引），最后提供盈利预览、资金流和专有模型等图表，以支持对中国市场的每周展望。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但提及将于1月27-28日举办全球宏观会议亚太2026，并提供了第四季度盈利预览（约40%的盈利预警为正面展望）和资金流更新（A股市场成交额创历史新高，融资余额升至2.7万亿元）。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: 4Q25/1Q26 reporting season for Chinese companies is concentrated in late March and late April

Exhibit 2: Earnings announcements for offshore-listed companies typically precede those of A-shares

Exhibit 3: ~40% of profit alerts for CY/4Q25 indicate a positive outlook

Exhibit 4: Positive profit alerts have been concentrated in Property, Media and Retailing

Exhibit 5: 14%/19% all China A-shares/CSI300 universe have announced profit alerts/pre-announcements with CY25 earnings expected to grow 16% (excluding unprofitable companies)

Exhibit 6: A-share market turnover reached an all-time high

Exhibit 7: Margin trading balances rose to Rmb2.7tn, as 2.4% of A-share market cap

Exhibit 8: Our ETF flow tracker indicate Rmb230bn outflows from “National Team” (NT) favorite ETFs since mid-Jan

Exhibit 9: Thematic ETFs continued having inflows...

Exhibit 10: ... which could suggest improving retail participation

Exhibit 11: Global hedge funds’ net allocation to China increased 34 bps year-to-date to 7.9% (38th percentile 5-year)

Exhibit 12: Our A-H rotation model suggests that H shares are likely to modestly outperform A shares in the next three months

Exhibit 13: Our news search-based Proxy indicates that policy towards POEs has further eased lately, coinciding with President Xi’s recent meeting with business leaders in the private sector

Exhibit 14: Our revamped A-share Retail Sentiment Proxy is not stretched compared to previous periods of strong sentiment

Exhibit 15: US-China Relations Barometer (GSSRUSCN) at 65

Exhibit 16: Equity market tightening risks seem low per our Equity Policy Risks Barometer