高盛：中国高频经济指标：2月

原标题：Goldman Sachs GS China Econ Proprietary Indicators: February

摘要

高盛发布2月中国高频经济指标更新。12月中国当前活动指标（CAI）环比年化升至+4.6%，高于11月的+4.5%，改善主要由制造业带动。进口隐含的国内需求指标显示国内需求偏弱。MAP惊喜指数（21日移动平均）表明近期宏观数据低于市场预期。制造业增长代理指标12月下降，而建筑业增长代理指标小幅上升。投资跟踪器显示Q4实际增加值增速放缓至约1.9%。库存跟踪器显示Q4库存小幅下降，库存变化对GDP环比增长的贡献在Q4 2025略有减少。中国金融条件指数（含信贷量）12月小幅收紧，主要受贸易加权汇率升值驱动，但部分被信贷宽松抵消。信贷脉冲对增长的估计影响在2026年将转为负值（若无政策宽松）。12月外汇流入规模为历史最大。国内宏观政策代理指标12月小幅收紧，主要因信贷成分收紧。扩大财政赤字指标12月小幅扩大（3mma和12mma）。财政支出比率12月下降（12mma）。城市级房地产相对紧缩指数显示住房政策持续宽松。

主要观点

• 12月CAI环比年化升至+4.6%，高于11月的+4.5%。
• CAI改善主要由制造业部门带动。
• 进口隐含的国内需求代理指标显示国内需求偏弱。
• MAP惊喜指数（21日移动平均）表明近期宏观数据低于市场预期。
• 制造业增长代理指标12月下降，建筑业增长代理指标小幅上升。
• 投资跟踪器（实际增加值口径）显示Q4增速放缓至约1.9%。
• 库存跟踪器显示Q4库存小幅下降。
• 库存变化对GDP环比增长的贡献在Q4 2025略有减少。
• 中国金融条件指数（含信贷量）12月小幅收紧。
• FCI收紧主要受贸易加权汇率升值驱动，但部分被信贷宽松抵消。
• 若无政策宽松，信贷脉冲对增长的估计影响在2026年将转为负值。
• 12月外汇流入规模为历史最大（基于SAFE数据）。
• 国内宏观政策代理指标12月小幅收紧，主要因信贷成分收紧。
• 扩大财政赤字指标12月小幅扩大（3mma和12mma）。
• 财政支出比率12月下降（12mma）。
• 城市级房地产相对紧缩指数显示住房政策持续宽松。

论述逻辑

报告通过一系列高频指标追踪中国经济活动。CAI作为综合指标显示12月环比改善，制造业是主要驱动力。但进口隐含的国内需求偏弱，MAP惊喜指数低于预期，表明整体动能仍有隐忧。投资和库存指标显示Q4增长放缓。金融条件小幅收紧，信贷脉冲预计在2026年转为负值，暗示若无政策宽松，增长可能承压。外汇流入创历史新高，而财政和房地产政策指标显示宽松力度有所减弱。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出若无政策宽松，信贷脉冲对增长的估计影响在2026年将转为负值。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Our China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) ticked up to +4.6% mom annualized in December from +4.5% in November

Exhibit 2: December’s improvement in CAI was mainly led by manufacturing sectors

Exhibit 3: Our proprietary import-implied domestic demand proxy suggests weaker domestic demand

Exhibit 4: Our MAP surprise index (21-day moving average) suggests recent macro data have been below market expectations

Exhibit 5: Our manufacturing growth proxy fell in December while our construction growth proxy ticked up slightly

Exhibit 6: Our investment tracker (on a real value-added basis) indicates a slowdown in growth at around 1.9% in Q4

Exhibit 7: Our China inventory tracker suggests inventory edged down slightly in Q4

Exhibit 8: The boost from inventory changes to sequential GDP growth decreased slightly in Q4 2025

Exhibit 9: Our China outside-in export tracker was largely in line with the official export growth data in recent months

Exhibit 10: Our China outside-in import tracker has slightly outperformed the official import growth data in recent months

Exhibit 11: China Financial Conditions Index (FCI; with credit quantities) tightened slightly in December

Exhibit 12: The slight tightening in FCI was mainly driven by FX appreciation against the trade-weighted basket, although it was partially offset by easier credit

Exhibit 13: We estimate the growth impact of credit impulse will become negative in 2026 without policy easing

Exhibit 14: Our preferred gauge suggests largest ever FX inflows in December

Exhibit 15: Our China domestic macro policy proxy tightened slightly in December

Exhibit 16: December’s slight tightening in GS China macro policy proxy was mainly due to tighter credit component

Exhibit 17: Our augmented fiscal deficit (AFD) metric widened marginally in December on both a 3mma and 12mma basis

Exhibit 18: China’s fiscal “spend-through” ratio fell in December on a 12mma basis

Exhibit 19: Our city-level property relative tightness index suggests continued housing easing