高盛：新兴市场每周启动：MSCI新兴市场指数周跌1.4%，受‘动量’因子逆转及全球软件板块抛售影响；外资大幅卖出，科技重仓的北亚领跌；四季度业绩多数符合预期

原标题：Goldman Sachs EM WEEKLY KICKSTART：MSCI EM fell 1.4% w w amid ‘Momentum’ unwind & global Software sell~off； Large foreign selling led by tech~heavy North Asia； 4Q results mostly in line

摘要

截至2026年2月6日当周，MSCI新兴市场指数（MXEF）下跌1.4%，受全球风险偏好下降、动量因子大幅逆转以及软件板块抛售影响。外资净流出93亿美元，主要由韩国（-75亿美元）和台湾（-33亿美元）领卖，而印度则获8亿美元净流入。中国（-4%）和韩国（-3%）表现落后，印度（+2%）在主要市场中领先。四季度业绩方面，约18%的公司（占市值39%）已公布，整体符合预期。MSCI新兴市场当前12个月远期市盈率为12.8倍，高于10年均值0.9个标准差。2026年EPS预期周环比上调3.1%，主要由韩国带动。报告强调，动量因子在多个地区出现逆转，全球软件板块因AI颠覆担忧而大幅下跌，但新兴市场科技股相对抗跌（年初至今仅跌5%）。高盛认为，尽管软件估值已回落，但尚不宜过早增加风险敞口，预计需2-3个季度基本面企稳后情绪才能改善。

主要观点

• MSCI新兴市场指数周跌1.4%，全球风险偏好下降，欧洲和新兴市场下跌3-5%。
• 动量因子大幅逆转：MSCI美国动量指数从近期高点下跌7%，并蔓延至其他地区，新兴市场动量因子在南非、拉美（商品反转）和北亚（科技股压力）承受最大压力。
• 外资大幅流出：新兴市场股票周净流出93亿美元，韩国（-75亿美元）和台湾（-33亿美元）领卖，印度（+8亿美元）获流入。
• 中国（-4%）和韩国（-3%）表现落后，印度（+2%）在主要市场中领先。
• 全球软件板块因AI颠覆担忧大幅下跌：美国和欧洲软件服务板块年初至今下跌近20%，而新兴市场科技股仅跌5%。
• 高盛认为，尽管软件估值已回落，但尚不宜过早增加风险敞口，预计需2-3个季度基本面企稳后情绪才能改善。
• 四季度业绩：约18%的公司（占市值39%）已公布，整体符合预期；通信服务和医疗保健板块正面惊喜，材料和房地产板块负面惊喜。
• MSCI新兴市场当前12个月远期市盈率为12.8倍，高于10年均值0.9个标准差。
• 2026年EPS预期周环比上调3.1%，主要由韩国（+1.43%周环比）和台湾（+0.1%周环比）带动。
• 美国-印度贸易协议宣布，印度关税降低；印度、墨西哥、波兰和捷克央行降息；台湾、智利和捷克CPI通胀温和，菲律宾和土耳其通胀上升。
• 报告偏好顺周期配置，超配科技/AI相关板块、金属与矿业及房地产，低配防御性板块。

论述逻辑

报告从市场表现出发，指出MSCI新兴市场指数下跌主要受全球风险偏好下降和动量因子逆转驱动。外资大幅流出，尤其是科技重仓的北亚地区（韩国、台湾），而印度逆势获流入。全球软件板块因AI颠覆担忧大幅下跌，但新兴市场科技股相对抗跌。四季度业绩多数符合预期，EPS预期上调主要由韩国带动。报告进一步分析估值水平（12.8倍远期PE）和资金流向，认为当前市场处于动量因子出清和板块轮动阶段，建议投资者保持顺周期配置，关注科技/AI、金属与矿业及房地产等主题，同时警惕软件板块的进一步风险。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出：美国软件分析师预计需2-3个季度基本面企稳后情绪才能改善；策略师建议近期保持谨慎，因盈利和利润率存在不确定性。此外，报告提及多个市场主题，如AI基础设施、经济安全/国防、公司治理改善、降息周期等，但未量化具体时间或目标。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出具体推荐标的或评级，但提供了市场配置建议：超配中国、印度、韩国、台湾、南非、巴西、墨西哥、智利、秘鲁、哥伦比亚、希腊、匈牙利、阿联酋；低配马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、沙特阿拉伯、波兰、土耳其、埃及。行业配置上，超配科技硬件/半导体、能源、消费者零售与服务、保险及其他金融、医疗保健、互联网媒体与娱乐、金属与矿业、房地产；低配汽车与零部件、软件与服务、电信服务、消费者 staples、化工与其他材料、公用事业。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Sharp unwind in Momentum factor in the US, Europe and EM

Exhibit 2: Within EM, South Africa and China have seen the sharpest unwinds in the momentum factor

Exhibit 3: Consensus longs in Asia have underperformed the broader EM benchmark

Exhibit 4: EM (India, China) Software has shown more resilience than US and Europe amid sell-off in the past week

Exhibit 5: In EM, markets that have seen the strongest performances since the start of the year have seen the sharpest unwinds in the past week

Exhibit 6: Taiwan Tech h/w, China Consumer tech, and S. Africa Miners outperformed in Jan, but have lagged in the current sell-off

Exhibit 7: 4Q reporting season has kicked off in EM...

Exhibit 8: ...with a significant part of the market reporting over the next 9 weeks

Exhibit 9: Consensus expects earnings to strongly grow at around 24% YoY (4Q to 4Q) led by North Asia and LatAm, while MENA and China expected to be a drag

Exhibit 10: Tech and Materials are expected to be the strongest contributors to 4Q profit growth, while consumer sectors are expected to be the largest drag

Exhibit 11: Around 18% of companies (39% of market cap) have reported so far, EM results overall in line

Exhibit 12: Within sectors, Communication Services and Health Care have positively surprised, while Material and Real Estate have negative surprised

Exhibit 13: 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS has been revised higher since the start of the year...

Exhibit 14: EM 2026 EPS revised up 3.1% w/w

Exhibit 15: EM Market Allocation: Our market preferences are procyclical and balance tech with domestic-oriented exposure

Exhibit 16: EM Sector Allocations: Our sector allocations are procyclical and emphasize our core themes; We are overweight tech/AI-related sectors, Metals & Mining and Real Estate

Exhibit 17: EM offers various attractive market-specific sub-themes for alpha generation

Exhibit 18: Korea’s earnings upgrades have remained strong in 2026, while valuations remain near historical average levels

Exhibit 19: AI-related themes have performed well in the region but still lag their US peers

Exhibit 20: Rate-sensitives could perform well in markets where we could see the start of a cutting cycle or room for further monetary easing

Exhibit 21: Despite strong performance in the past few years, defense remains an attractive regional theme and has gained sharply over the past month...

Exhibit 22: Cyclicals vs. Defensives

Exhibit 23: US-exposed EM stocks have outperformed domestically exposed EM stocks

Exhibit 24: Weaker balance sheet stocks have outperformed amid tighter credit spreads

Exhibit 25: Stable Growers have outperformed the broader MSCI EM index over the long term and during past market drawdowns

Exhibit 26: We expect the outperformance of Greece and Hungary banks over Polish banks to continue

Exhibit 27: Bank stocks that are well-owned and have seen strong gains could see profit-taking, with investors potentially rotating into consumer sectors

Exhibit 28: Poland Defense and Infrastructure stocks vs. MSCI EM Europe

Exhibit 29: FX-sensitive stocks could be vulnerable given an overvalued Zloty

Exhibit 30: The rally in South African equities has been led by Miners, while the domestic market has been largely flat

Exhibit 31: Relative entry point for Domestic vs. Export sectors is currently at multi-year lows

Exhibit 32: South Africa’s domestic sector valuations are trading inexpensive relative to their historical range and are most positively levered to declining rates

Exhibit 33: We expect the outperformance of South Africa (MXZA) over CEE-3 (MXME) to continue

Exhibit 34: Bovespa returns decomposition

Exhibit 35: Equity valuations appear cheap relative to 10-year rates

Exhibit 36: Brazil equities have the highest negative correlation to local rates in EM, with lower rates implying higher equities...

Exhibit 37: ...and have tended to rally strongly following the first rate cut in past cutting cycles

Exhibit 38: Brazilian equities have performed well during episodes of declining 5Y rates...

Exhibit 39: ...with rate-sensitive pockets and domestically exposed stocks outperforming the headline index (about 2-3x on average)

Exhibit 40: Price performance of MSCI market and regional indices

Exhibit 41: MSCI EM returns since start of year have been earnings driven

Exhibit 42: EM Regional market performance

Exhibit 43: Relative price performance (US$) of MSCI EM markets vs. MSCI EM index

Exhibit 44: MSCI EM valuation has edged down recently

Exhibit 45: Valuation dispersion persists across EM markets

Exhibit 46: Valuation Z-score Markets

Exhibit 47: Valuation Z-score Sectors