伯恩斯坦：博通（AVGO）：FQ1 26 回顾——排好队，逐个击破...

原标题：Broadcom Inc（AVGO.US） FQ126 recap~Line 'em up and knock 'em down...

摘要

博通FQ1 26业绩稳健，营收和EPS均小幅超预期（$19.31B/$2.05 vs 市场预期$19.26B/$2.03），半导体业务表现优于预期，软件略逊。AI半导体是主要驱动力，季度收入约$8.4B，同比增长106%，高于预期的$8.2B。非AI半导体同比持平，复苏有限。毛利率77.0%，环比下降约90bps，略高于预期；运营支出低于预期。FQ2 26指引强劲，AI展望远超预期，EBITDA利润率和EPS均高于市场预期（$22.0B/68.0%/~$2.35 vs 市场$20.5B/66.4%/$2.16）。管理层在电话会议上打消了投资者对订单规模、毛利率稀释、CoT竞争和软件被AI替代等四大担忧。伯恩斯坦上调盈利预测和目标价至$525（基于FY27 EPS $17.73的30倍市盈率），维持跑赢大盘评级。

主要观点

• FQ1 26营收$19.31B，EPS $2.05，均略高于市场预期（$19.26B/$2.03）。
• 半导体收入$12.52B，高于市场预期的$12.31B；基础设施软件收入$6.80B，略低于市场预期的$6.86B。
• AI半导体收入约$8.4B，同比增长106%，环比增长，高于伯恩斯坦和市场预期的$8.2B。AI网络收入约占AI销售额的三分之一，同比增长60%。
• 非AI半导体约$4.1B，同比持平，环比下降，与市场预期一致，复苏依然乏力。
• 半导体分部毛利率约68%，同比上升约30bps；运营利润率约60%，同比上升约2.7个百分点。
• 软件收入同比增长1%至$6.80B，环比下降约2%，VMware同比增长13%。软件毛利率93%，运营利润率约78%。
• 整体毛利率77.0%，略高于市场预期的76.9%；运营支出$2,042M，低于市场预期的$2,186M。
• 调整后EBITDA利润率68.0%，高于指引约67%；自由现金流$8,010M，自由现金流利润率41.5%。
• FQ2 26指引：营收约$22.0B，远高于市场预期的$20.5B；半导体收入约$14.8B，AI收入约$10.7B（环比增$2.3B，同比增约140%），均远超市场预期。
• 管理层指出，AI出货量接近10 GW（由Google、Meta、Anthropic和OpenAI驱动），FY27 AI收入有望“显著超过”$100B，远高于当前市场预期的约$85B。
• 公司宣布新的$100亿股票回购授权。

论述逻辑

博通FQ1 26业绩超预期，主要得益于AI半导体强劲增长（同比+106%），而非AI和软件业务相对平淡。FQ2 26指引大幅超预期，核心是AI收入环比增长约$2.3B至$10.7B，显示AI需求加速。管理层在电话会议上积极回应市场四大担忧：1）订单展望：此前给出的18个月约$73B订单被认为保守，现管理层给出FY27 AI收入超$100B的指引，远超预期；2）毛利率稀释：AI机架销售不会对毛利率产生重大影响；3）CoT竞争：公司技术实力和创新速度可应对；4）软件被AI替代：VMware Cloud Foundation是AI运行的基础设施层，不会被替代。基于AI收入大幅上调，伯恩斯坦上调FY26/FY27/FY28营收和EPS预测，目标价从$475上调至$525（基于FY27 EPS $17.73的30倍市盈率），维持跑赢大盘评级。

关键展望

• FQ2 26（截至2026年4月）指引：营收约$22.0B，半导体$14.8B（AI $10.7B），软件$7.2B，毛利率约77%，EBITDA利润率约68%，EPS约$2.35。
• FY27 AI收入有望“显著超过”$100B，AI出货量接近10 GW。
• FY28 AI收入预计继续增长。
• 风险：AI需求放缓、竞争加剧、毛利率稀释、软件业务被AI替代。

推荐标的

• Broadcom Inc (AVGO)：评级 跑赢大盘，目标价 $525（此前$475），基于FY27 EPS $17.73的30倍市盈率。理由：AI半导体强劲增长，软件业务稳健，管理层打消市场担忧，盈利预测上调。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: FQ126 results were slightly above consensus expectations on revenues and EPS

Exhibit 2: Semi sales were up ~13% QoQ and up ~52% YoY, while Software was down ~2% QoQ and up ~1% YoY

Exhibit 3: Infrastructure software was ~35% of total revenues in the quarter, down from ~39% last qtr

Exhibit 4: Semiconductor revenues were above expectations while Software was slightly below expectations

Exhibit 5: Overall and Semis growth was purely driven by AI semis which grew 106% YoY in the quarter, with Core semis ~flat and Software revenues growing ~1% YoY

Exhibit 6: Semis segment results were above both on AI and non-AI, while Software was slightly below

Exhibit 7: Semi segment gross margins were up ~30bps YoY and operating margins were up ~3ppt YoY. Software gross margins were up ~50bps YoY and operating margins were up ~190bps

Exhibit 8: AVGO gross margins were down sequentially by ~90bps to 77.0% and operating margins rose by ~20bps to 66.4%

Exhibit 9: Free cash flow totaled $8,010M, with FCF margins in the quarter at 41.5%

Exhibit 10: Q2 revenues are seen at ~$22.0B, well above consensus estimates of ~$20.5B

Exhibit 11: Semiconductor revenues are seen at ~$14.8B, well above the Street at ~$13.1B

Exhibit 12: Implied EPS guidance appears to be ~$2.35, above consensus at $2.16

Exhibit 13: EPS numbers approaching $20 a share could now conceivably be in the realm of possibility for next year

Exhibit 14: Accompanying margins and free cash flow entering rarefied territory

Exhibit 15: Inventories grew to $2,962M in the quarter vs $2,270M last quarter, with days up sequentially

Exhibit 16: Net Debt was $51.9B, leverage remained stable 1.1x