高盛：台湾周报：台股2025年最后一周上涨3%，全年收涨26%创历史新高，科技股领涨尽管两岸风险升级

原标题：Goldman Sachs TAIWAN WEEKLY KICKSTART：TAIEX gained 3% in the final week of 2025， closing the year at an all~time high with 26% gains， led by strong Tech performance despite escalating cross~strait risks

摘要

2025年最后一周，台股TAIEX上涨3%，全年累计上涨26%，收于历史新高。科技股表现强劲，台积电（TSMC）全年上涨44%，科技硬件涨30%，其他半导体涨22%；而公用事业、消费、运输板块跌幅超10%。盈利增长和估值扩张是主要驱动力，但盈利修正出现科技与非科技板块的分化：硬件和半导体获最多上调，商品、运输和消费则遭大幅下调。外资（QFII）全年净卖出80亿美元，但4月底至9月曾净流入约300亿美元；本土基金净买入约30亿美元。估值方面，未来12个月市盈率为18.7倍，高于历史均值2个标准差。台积电ADR溢价降至23%，反转指数为-0.4，预示潜在反弹。两岸风险指标GSSRCSRI维持在76。宏观数据方面，标普全球PMI为50.9（前值48.8）。Q1季节性显示1月和2月历史上是台股最强月份，中位数涨幅各约2%，外资流入也通常为正。

主要观点

• 2025年TAIEX上涨26%，排名1988年以来前25%分位，延续2023-2024年27-28%的强劲涨势。
• 指数从1月至4月中旬曾回调25%，随后反弹67%，接近29000点。
• 台积电全年上涨44%，领涨市场；科技硬件涨30%，其他半导体涨22%。
• 公用事业、消费、运输板块跌幅超10%。
• 盈利增长和估值扩张是2025年上涨的主要驱动力，盈利自9月起获上调。
• 盈利修正出现显著分化：硬件和半导体获最多上调，商品、运输和消费遭大幅下调。
• 外资（QFII）全年净卖出80亿美元，但4月底至9月曾净流入约300亿美元。
• 本土基金全年净买入约30亿美元，主要买入金融和台积电，继续卖出其他科技股。
• 散户投资者提高保证金余额并增加期货多头头寸。
• 未来12个月市盈率18.7倍，高于历史均值2个标准差。
• 台积电ADR溢价降至23%，反转指数为-0.4，预示潜在反弹。
• 两岸风险指标GSSRCSRI维持在76。
• 标普全球PMI 50.9（前值48.8），即将公布通胀和贸易数据。
• Q1季节性：1月和2月历史上是台股最强月份，中位数涨幅各约2%，外资流入通常为正。
• 1月板块表现：信息技术、银行和材料通常领先；医疗保健、运输、汽车和能源通常落后。

论述逻辑

报告从2025年最后一周的市场表现切入，回顾全年走势：TAIEX上涨26%，但经历25%的回调后反弹67%。上涨由科技股（尤其是台积电）驱动，盈利增长和估值扩张是核心动力。盈利修正出现科技与非科技板块的分化，外资全年净卖出但阶段性流入，本土基金净买入。估值处于高位，台积电ADR溢价和反转指数暗示短期机会。两岸风险指标维持高位但未进一步恶化。宏观数据改善，Q1季节性利好。综合这些因素，报告认为台股在2025年表现强劲，但需关注估值和风险。

关键展望

• 报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但提及Q1季节性：1月和2月历史上是台股最强月份，中位数涨幅各约2%，外资流入通常为正。
• 即将公布的数据：通胀（周三）、出口/贸易（周五）。
• 台积电ADR溢价降至23%，反转指数为-0.4，暗示潜在反弹。
• 两岸风险指标GSSRCSRI维持在76，未给出方向性预测。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。覆盖的指数和个股包括：TAIEX、TWSE、TPEx、台积电（TSMC）、科技硬件、半导体、金融等板块，但未提供具体评级或目标价。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Taiwan equities delivered another impressive 26% price return (TAIEX) in 2025 (ranking in the top 25%ile since 1988), following strong rallies of 27-28% in both 2023 and 2024

Exhibit 2: The index experienced a sharp 25% correction from January to mid-April, but subsequently rebounded by 67%, reaching near all-time highs close to the 29,000 level

Exhibit 3: Performance in 2025 was driven by robust earnings growth, positive revisions since September, and continued valuation expansion from the April lows

Exhibit 4: TSMC led the market with a 44% gain, followed by Tech Hardware (+30%) and other Semis (+22%), while Utilities, Consumer, and Transportation sectors recorded declines of more than 10%

Exhibit 5: Since February 2025, Taiwan equities’ EPS faced continued consensus downgrades through August, before a sharp recovery and upgrades following robust results and easing tariff concerns

Exhibit 6: There was a notable divergence between Tech and Non-Tech sectors. Hardware and Semis saw the most positive revisions, while Commodities, Transportation, and Consumer sectors experienced significant earnings cuts

Exhibit 7: QFlls net sold US$8 billion of Taiwan equities in 2025, despite strong inflows of around US$30 billion from late April through the end of September

Exhibit 8: Domestic funds ended the year with moderate net buying of about US$3 billion, primarily in Financials and TSMC, while continuing to sell other Tech names

Exhibit 9: January and February have historically been the strongest months for Taiwan equities, delivering median gains of 2% each over the past 15 years

Exhibit 10: Foreign investment flows also tend to be positive during these first two months but typically weaken in March

Exhibit 11: Overall, Q1 ranks as the second-best performing quarter after Q4, with median returns of +3% since 2011 and a 73% probability of positive performance

Exhibit 12: By sector, Info Tech, Banks, and Materials have historically led in January, while Health Care, Transportation, Autos, and Energy have generally lagged

Exhibit 13: Taiwan Market/Sector Summary & Scorecard

Exhibit 14: TAIEX index target and EPS forecasts

Exhibit 15: Taiwan macro forecasts

Exhibit 16: GS Asia-Pacific market allocation and index targets

Exhibit 17: EPS growth forecasts, GS top-down vs. Consensus bottom-up

Exhibit 18: Performance Summary of Global Markets and Taiwan Sectors

Exhibit 19: Relative Performance of Taiwan Sectors (All Listed Equities)

Exhibit 20: Long/Short Performance of Taiwan Style Factors (MSCI Taiwan)

Exhibit 21: Cumulative QFlls (foreign) net buying in Taiwan cash equities

Exhibit 22: Cumulative domestic institutions (funds & dealers) net buying

Exhibit 23: Taiwan equity foreign ownership by sector

Exhibit 24: Taiwan equity trading volume by investor type

Exhibit 25: Index & ETF Futures: Net Open Interest Amount (in US$bn)

Exhibit 26: Single Stock Futures: Net Open Interest Amount (in US$bn)

Exhibit 27: Foreign Investor Flows in Cash Equities and Futures

Exhibit 28: Retail /Non-Institutional Flows in Cash Equities and Futures

Exhibit 29: Leveraged & Inverse ETFs: QFlls Holdings

Exhibit 30: Hedge fund net trading flows in Asian markets, based on GS Prime Services data