伯恩斯坦：ASML：低数值孔径EUV平均售价有望上涨60%？跑赢大盘

原标题：ASML: LNA EUV ASP seeing 60% upside? Outperform

摘要

伯恩斯坦报告指出，ASML宣布已找到将EUV光源功率提升至1000W的具体方法，较当前NXE:3800E平台的约600W提升超50%。这一突破将显著提升吞吐量至330WpH，并基于ASML的定价模式（约100万欧元/WpH），使低数值孔径EUV平均售价从2025年的2.2亿欧元升至约3.5亿欧元，涨幅达60%。同时，成本增幅低于售价，推动毛利率扩张。高数值孔径EUV也将受益于相同光源，吞吐量和利润率有望提升。EUV有望在约5年内取代DUV双重图形化，并拉大与竞争对手的差距。伯恩斯坦维持ASML跑赢大盘评级，目标价1600欧元，潜在上涨空间27%。

主要观点

• ASML已找到将EUV光源功率提升至1000W的具体方法，较当前600W提升超50%。
• 2024年资本市场日曾将1000W作为长期目标，现已有具体技术路径。
• 吞吐量从当前约220WpH提升至330WpH，较当前路线图（4000F: 250WpH, 4200G: 280WpH）更高。
• ASML定价与吞吐量线性相关，历史约为100万欧元/WpH，因此330WpH对应约3.5亿欧元平均售价，较2025年2.2亿欧元上涨60%。
• 成本增幅低于售价，因主要组件（尤其是光学部件）不变，仅需调整锡滴速率和预脉冲方式。
• 高数值孔径EUV同样受益，因光源与低数值孔径通用，预计成熟期利润率更高。
• EUV有望在约5年内取代DUV双重图形化，因ArFi吞吐量受物理限制难以大幅提升。
• 中国EUV原型机若突破，ASML仍具成本和性能优势，且可能促使限制放松，打开中国市场。
• 美国初创公司Substrate的X射线技术尚不成熟，难以挑战ASML。
• 维持跑赢大盘评级，目标价1600欧元，基于2026年每股收益30.94欧元，市盈率约40.8倍。

论述逻辑

ASML宣布EUV光源功率提升至1000W的具体方案 → 吞吐量从220WpH升至330WpH → 基于历史定价关系（约100万欧元/WpH），低数值孔径EUV平均售价从2.2亿欧元升至3.5亿欧元（+60%） → 成本增幅较小，推动毛利率扩张 → 高数值孔径EUV同样受益 → EUV成本下降速度超过ArFi，有望在约5年内取代DUV双重图形化 → 拉大与竞争对手（中国EUV、美国Substrate）的差距 → 维持跑赢大盘评级。

关键展望

• 2026年EUV毛利率预计重回扩张轨道，因产品组合改善（3600D出货减少）。
• EUV取代DUV双重图形化的时间点可能在约5年内，目前未纳入模型。
• 中国EUV突破可能触发出口限制放松，使ASML向中国销售EUV。
• 风险包括技术进展不及预期、客户需求变化、竞争加剧。

推荐标的

• ASML Holding NV (ASML.NA)：评级跑赢大盘，目标价1600欧元，当前股价1263.40欧元，潜在上涨空间27%。理由：EUV光源功率突破提升平均售价和利润率，巩固技术领先地位。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: ASML had already presented a roadmap at its 2024 Investor Day indicating that they expect EUV source power to reach 1,000 W around 2030.

Exhibit 2: ASML has consistently linked the ASP of its machines to throughput. In particular, for EUV systems, each increase in throughput has been matched by an equal increase in ASP.

Exhibit 3: ASML reported that the new 3800E EUV system delivers a throughput of 220 WpH. At the 2024 CMD, they added that the next-generation 4000F and 4000G systems are expected to reach 250 and 280 WpH, respectively. They now indicate throughput could reach 330 WpH by 2030, exceeding the historical trendline.

Exhibit 4: ASML has consistently linked the ASP of its machines to throughput. In particular, for EUV systems, each increase in throughput has been matched by an equal increase in ASP.

Exhibit 5: Historical throughput and ASP has a strong correlation.

Exhibit 6: HNA throughput is expected to remain relatively stable over the next few years, staying below 200 WpH even as it enters high‑volume manufacturing.

Exhibit 7: We do not expect ArFi throughput to improve significantly over the next few years, as also indicated by ASML.

Exhibit 8: Conversely, EUV throughput is expected to continue increasing at an accelerated pace, reaching 330 WpH — a level similar to what DUV is projected to achieve in 2027/28.

Exhibit 9: ASML has calculated that, compared with DUV logic triple‑patterning, single‑exposure (SE) EUV has been the more cost‑effective option since 2020. For DRAM, SE EUV became more economical than DUV double‑patterning in 2024. A similar shift is expected for double‑patterned logic in ~2028. With the continued increase in EUV throughput, this transition could occur even sooner.

Exhibit 10: China is still at early stage when compared with ASML’s EUV roadmap.

Exhibit 11: ASML Income Statement