摩根大通：3月信贷数据：贷款创造疲弱拖累社融；债券融资和存款保持支撑

原标题：March credit data: weak loan creation weighs on TSF; bond financing and deposits stay supportive

摘要

3月社融新增5.23万亿元，低于摩根大通预期（5.66万亿元）和彭博共识（5.55万亿元），主要受贷款创造疲弱拖累。人民币新增贷款2.99万亿元，显著低于预期（摩根大通3.48万亿元/彭博3.47万亿元），零售贷款持续疲弱，企业贷款保持韧性。存款增速稳定在8.7%，远高于社融和贷款增速，显示系统流动性充裕。政府债券余额增速15.9%继续跑赢社融增速7.9%，企业债券融资3月强劲反弹。摩根大通对中国银行保持积极看法，因企业信贷持稳且系统流动性充裕。

主要观点

• 3月社融新增5.23万亿元，低于摩根大通预期（5.66万亿元）和彭博共识（5.55万亿元），社融存量增速从2月的8.2%放缓至7.9%。
• 人民币新增贷款2.99万亿元，显著低于摩根大通预期（3.48万亿元）和彭博共识（3.47万亿元），贷款余额增速从6.0%进一步放缓至5.7%。
• 零售贷款需求仍是主要拖累，零售贷款同比增速从2月的0.2%降至-0.4%，短期零售贷款增速从-4.2%进一步下滑至-5.4%。
• 企业贷款增速保持韧性，3月同比8.5%，仅较2月的8.8%小幅下降；企业贷款期限结构均衡，短期企业贷款1.48万亿元，中长期1.35万亿元。
• 企业债券融资3月新增3950亿元，较2月的1520亿元大幅增长，且扭转了去年3月的收缩（-910亿元）。
• 政府债券融资3月新增1.162万亿元，同比下降22%，但余额增速15.9%远超社融增速7.9%，凸显财政支持作用。
• 存款增速3月为8.7%，仅较2月的8.8%微降，且远高于社融增速7.9%和贷款增速5.7%，显示系统流动性充裕。
• 活期存款占比2月为27.1%，基本持平；企业活期存款增速放缓至10%，居民活期存款增速8%。
• 公募基金新募集3月1101亿元，同比增长21%，环比增长38%；新发理财产品数量同比增长10%，较2月的2%加速，显示投资者风险偏好改善，利好银行财富管理手续费收入。
• M1增速5.1%高于彭博预期4.5%，M2增速8.5%低于预期8.9%，M1-M2负缺口从2月的-3.1%扩大至-3.4%，显示流动性活化放缓。

论述逻辑

3月社融数据低于预期，主要因贷款创造疲弱，尤其是零售贷款（短期零售贷款同比-5.4%）拖累明显；但企业贷款增速保持8.5%韧性，企业债券融资大幅反弹，政府债券余额增速持续高位，存款增速稳定在8.7%显示流动性充裕。因此，尽管信贷总量偏弱，但结构上企业信贷和债券融资支撑，系统流动性充裕，摩根大通维持对中国银行的积极看法。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出零售资产质量预计在贷款增长之前恢复，尤其是非按揭贷款。

推荐标的

报告未明确给出推荐标的。

关键图表

Figure 1: Total bank loan y/y growth in TSF was 5.7% y/y in Mar-26, further moderating from 6.0% y/y in Feb-26, and shadow credit growth was 2.2% y/y in Mar-26, vs. 3.9% y/y in Feb-26

Figure 2: Official TSF growth declined to 7.9% y/y in Mar-26, from 8.2% y/y in Feb-26 and deposit growth edged down to 8.7% y/y in Mar-26, vs 8.8% y/y in Feb-26

Figure 3: Corporate and government bond financing growth was edged up to 13.7% y/y in Mar-26 vs 13.6% y/y in Feb-26

Figure 4: The M1-M2 growth gap was -3.4% in Mar-26, slightly widened from -3.1% in Feb-26

Figure 5: Demand deposits ratio edged down by 4bps m/m to 27.1% in Feb

Figure 6: Corporate demand deposits growth decelerated to 10% y/y in Feb-26, while household demand deposits increased by 8% y/y

Figure 7: Corporate loan growth edged down to 8.5% y/y in Mar-26 from 8.8% y/y in Feb-26, and retail loan growth further dropped to -0.4% y/y in Mar-26 vs. 0.2% y/y in Feb-26

Figure 8: 3M-SHIBOR edged down by 6bp m/m, and 7D repo declined by 17bp m/m in Mar-26

Figure 9: M/L retail loan growth moderated to1.4% y/y in Mar-26 vs. 1.7% y/y in Feb-26, and short-term retail loan growth dropped to -5.4% y/y in Mar-26 from -4.2% y/y in Feb-26

Figure 10: Corporate deposit growth decreased to 3.9% y/y in Mar-26 vs. 4.2% y/y in Feb-26, while retail deposit growth moderated to 8.2% y/y in Mar-26 vs. 8.8% y/y in Feb-26