瑞银：存储半导体月度：2026年1月刊：存储半导体进入未知领域

原标题：UBS Memory Semis Monthly：January '26 Edition： Memory semis enter unchartered territories

摘要

瑞银2026年1月存储半导体月度报告指出，存储半导体供需缺口进一步扩大，1Q26合同定价大幅跳升，DRAM市场涨幅空前。DDR合同定价环比上调至+58%（此前+30%），NAND闪存上调至+27%（此前+20%）。服务器DDR5定价环比+60%，移动DRAM+62%，PC DRAM相对落后为+45%。供应商预计2Q26将进一步上涨，移动DRAM将缩小与服务器DRAM的差距。DRAM行业预计至少到1Q27仍将供不应求，NAND到3Q26。需求破坏风险仍存，内存涨价可能传导至系统价格并抑制需求。瑞银下调2026年智能手机出货量预测至同比+1%，PC出货量至同比-4%。Nvidia CES主题演讲中提及KV缓存，使NAND闪存股反应积极，但该应用仅为可选配置。瑞银维持存储为科技板块首选子行业，上调SK海力士、三星、南亚科和美光的目标价。

主要观点

• 1Q26 DDR合同定价环比涨幅从+30%上调至+58%，NAND从+20%上调至+27%，为卖方市场。
• 服务器DDR5定价环比+60%，移动DRAM+62%，PC DRAM+45%，供应商对2Q26进一步上涨有信心。
• DRAM行业预计至少到1Q27仍将供不应求，NAND到3Q26。
• 内存涨价可能导致系统价格上涨，进而引发负价格弹性；瑞银下调2026年智能手机出货量预测至同比+1%，PC至同比-4%。
• 内存定价已侵蚀OEM利润率，例如三星MX部门4Q25营业利润率可能降至5.7%（3Q25为10.6%，4Q24为8.1%）。
• 智能手机/PC客户正在讨论降规，部分原因不仅是成本，还有内存可用性。
• Nvidia CES主题演讲中提及KV缓存，为Vera Rubin引入新上下文内存存储层，但仅为可选配置，非基础配置。
• NAND内容为每GPU 16TB，若按25%/50%/75%渗透率，分别占2026年NAND闪存位需求约0.5%/1.0%/1.5%。
• 瑞银维持存储为科技板块首选子行业。
• 上调SK海力士目标价至100万韩元（此前85.3万韩元），评级买入。
• 上调三星（普通股）目标价至17.2万韩元（此前15.4万韩元），评级买入。
• 上调南亚科技目标价至新台币264元（此前190元），评级买入。
• 美光目标价400美元，评级买入。

论述逻辑

报告从1Q26合同定价大幅跳升出发，指出供需缺口扩大，供应商信心增强，预计2Q26继续上涨。但涨价可能抑制终端需求，导致智能手机和PC出货量下调。同时，Nvidia KV缓存应用为NAND带来额外需求，但渗透率有限。基于强劲定价和供需前景，瑞银上调主要存储厂商目标价。

关键展望

• 2Q26 DRAM定价预计进一步上涨，移动DRAM将缩小与服务器DRAM的差距。
• DRAM行业供不应求至少持续到1Q27，NAND到3Q26。
• 智能手机/PC需求破坏风险：内存涨价可能导致系统价格上涨，进而抑制需求。
• Nvidia KV缓存渗透率假设：25%/50%/75%分别对应2026年NAND闪存位需求0.5%/1.0%/1.5%。
• 报告未明确给出其他未来验证点或时间窗口。

推荐标的

• SK海力士：评级买入，目标价100万韩元（此前85.3万韩元）。理由：受益于HBM和DRAM强劲定价。
• 三星（普通股）：评级买入，目标价17.2万韩元（此前15.4万韩元）。理由：HBM和DRAM业务改善。
• 南亚科技：评级买入，目标价新台币264元（此前190元）。理由：DRAM涨价周期。
• 美光：评级买入，目标价400美元。理由：DRAM和NAND业务受益。

关键图表

Figure 1: AI server GPU/accelerator unit forecasts (‘000 units)

Figure 2: HBM demand forecasts by GPU/accelerator

Figure 3: HBM vendors’ bit shipments

Figure 4: Adjusted HBM supply vs demand

Figure 5: HBM ASP forecasts (US$/1Gb)

Figure 6: HBM as % of total DRAM revenues ('23-'26E)

Figure 7: HBM capacity and bit shipment forecasts

Figure 8: HBM bit share by vendor

Figure 9: DRAM industry capacity (k wpm) breakdown between DDR and HBM

Figure 10: DRAM capacity (k wpm) breakdown between DDR and HBM by supplier

Figure 11: HBM demand by type ('26E)

Figure 12: HBM demand by customer ('26E)

Figure 13: Samsung — HBM as % of DRAM revenues

Figure 14: SK Hynix - HBM as % of DRAM revenues

Figure 15: Samsung - HBM as % of DRAM bits

Figure 16: SK Hynix — HBM as % of DRAM bits

Figure 17: Samsung and SK Hynix DRAM revenues (Won bn) '10-'29E

Figure 18: Samsung and SK Hynix DRAM operating margins (%) '10-'29E

Figure 19: DDR cycles in context

Figure 20: NAND cycles in context

Figure 21: Memory as % of premium smartphone BOM costs

Figure 22: Memory as % of mid/low-range smartphone BOM costs

Figure 23: Top 7 hyperscalers' capex forecasts aggregated (US$bn) and total capital intensity (%)

Figure 24: Top 8 hyperscalers' server procurement aggregate (K units) and YoY growth

Figure 25: DRAM bit demand per application (2025E)

Figure 26: NAND bit demand per application (2025E)

Figure 27: Samsung and SK Hynix - DRAM finished wafers and dies inventories

Figure 28: Samsung and SK Hynix - NAND finished wafers and dies inventories

Figure 29: DRAM customer inventories (weeks)

Figure 30: NAND customer inventories (weeks)

Figure 31: DRAM industry wafer starts and YoY growth

Figure 32: NAND industry wafer starts and YoY growth

Figure 33: DRAM industry bit supply and YoY growth

Figure 34: NAND industry bit supply and YoY growth

Figure 35: CXMT wafer capacity and as % of DRAM industry

Figure 36: CXMT bit shipments and as % of DRAM industry

Figure 37: DRAM industry NOCF (US$m) and FCF margin %

Figure 38: NAND industry NOCF (US$m) and FCF margin %

Figure 39: DRAM industry capex (US$bn) and total capital intensity (%)

Figure 40: NAND industry capex (US$bn) and total capital intensity (%)

Figure 41: UBS DRAM supply/demand summary