高盛：新兴市场每周速览：MSCI新兴市场因缓解性反弹上涨4%；北亚、匈牙利领涨，东南亚落后；基于AI科技密集的韩国和台湾强劲盈利上调，我们上调MSCI新兴市场目标

原标题：Goldman Sachs EM WEEKLY KICKSTART：MSCI EM rose 4% as relief rallies continues； North Asia， Hungary led while South~east Asia lagged； We raise MSCI EM target on strong earnings upgrades in AI tech~heavy Korea and Taiwan

摘要

MSCI新兴市场指数（MXEF）上周上涨4%，受科技密集市场（韩国+6%，台湾+4%）和匈牙利（+6%）选举后反弹带动，而菲律宾（-2%）等东南亚市场落后。高盛将MSCI新兴市场2026/27年每股盈利增长预测从23%/13%上调至34%/14%，主要基于韩国（2026年EPS增长+220%）和台湾（+34%）的强劲盈利上调。同时，12个月目标价从1680上调至1750（隐含10%上行空间），目标市盈率12.7倍。资金流方面，台湾和巴西分别流入51亿和3亿美元，韩国流出6亿美元。报告还强调匈牙利选举后资产反弹，欧元区加入前景可能成为中期利好。

主要观点

• MSCI新兴市场指数（MXEF）上周上涨4%，受科技密集市场（韩国+6%，台湾+4%）和匈牙利（+6%）选举后反弹带动，而菲律宾（-2%）等东南亚市场落后。
• 高盛将MSCI新兴市场2026/27年每股盈利增长预测从23%/13%上调至34%/14%，主要基于韩国（2026年EPS增长+220%）和台湾（+34%）的强劲盈利上调。
• 韩国MSCI韩国2026年EPS增长预测从+130%上调至+220%，受内存强劲上升周期推动；台湾EPS增长预测上调至+34%。
• 除北亚外，新兴市场2026/27年EPS增长预测为11%/12%。
• 12个月MSCI新兴市场目标价从1680上调至1750（隐含10%上行空间），目标市盈率12.7倍；3个月/6个月路径上调至1630/1660。
• 资金流方面，台湾（+51亿美元）和巴西（+3亿美元）录得流入，韩国（-6亿美元）流出。
• 匈牙利选举后BUX指数上涨5%（本币），能源（+9%）和公用事业（+6%）领涨，消费板块持平。
• 报告认为，欧元区加入前景（在即将上任的Tisza政府下）可能成为匈牙利股市中期利好，低利率路径和相对较低的估值可能推高股票公允价值。
• 高盛发起相对价值交易建议：做多北亚 vs 南亚。
• 新兴市场估值：MXEF当前12个月远期市盈率11.8倍（低于10年均值0.4个标准差），过去一个月2026年EPS上调4.8%。

论述逻辑

报告从市场表现出发，指出MSCI新兴市场因美国-伊朗停火后的缓解性反弹上涨10%，但分化显著。基于韩国和台湾AI/科技密集市场的强劲盈利上调（韩国受内存周期推动，台湾受AI硬件需求推动），高盛上调整体新兴市场盈利预测和目标价。同时，匈牙利选举结果引发当地资产反弹，欧元区加入前景可能进一步支撑估值。资金流显示外资回流台湾和巴西，但韩国流出。报告通过相对价值交易（北亚 vs 南亚）和行业配置（超配科技硬件、互联网、大宗商品）来捕捉这些趋势。

关键展望

• 报告明确提到：MSCI新兴市场12个月目标价1750，隐含10%上行空间，基于12.7倍目标市盈率。
• 3个月/6个月路径目标分别为1630/1660。
• 匈牙利方面，欧元区加入前景（在Tisza政府下）可能成为中期利好，低利率路径和低估值可能推高公允价值。
• 报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但强调盈利上调（韩国+220%，台湾+34%）是目标上调的关键驱动。

推荐标的

报告未给出具体公司推荐，但提供了覆盖市场的12个月总回报预测（含股息）：

• 韩国（KOSPI）：目标8000，总回报33%（本币28%，汇率2%，股息1%）
• 台湾（TWSE）：目标40000，总回报11%（本币8%，汇率2%，股息2%）
• 中国（MXCN）：目标95，总回报22%（本币19%，汇率1%，股息2%）
• 巴西（IBOV）：目标215000，总回报3%（本币9%，汇率6%，股息5%）
• 南非（JSE40）：目标122000，总回报19%（本币10%，汇率4%，股息4%）
• 印度（NIFTY）：目标25900，总回报5%（本币7%，汇率-3%，股息1%）
• 匈牙利（BUX）：目标132000，总回报4%（本币-3%，汇率7%，股息3%）
• 波兰（WIG）：目标113000，总回报-14%（本币-15%，汇率1%，股息4%）
• 泰国（SET）：目标1420，总回报-2%（本币-5%，汇率0%，股息3%）
• 印尼（JCI）：目标7500，总回报3%（本币-2%，汇率1%，股息6%）
• 菲律宾（PCOMP）：目标6300，总回报6%（本币4%，汇率-1%，股息3%）
• 墨西哥（MEXBOL）：目标72000，总回报4%（本币4%，汇率4%，股息4%）
• 沙特阿拉伯（SASEIDX）：目标12000，总回报8%（本币4%，汇率0%，股息4%）
• 阿联酋（DFMGI）：目标5800，总回报3%（本币2%，汇率0%，股息5%）
• 卡塔尔（DSM）：目标10000，总回报-2%（本币0%，汇率0%，股息5%）
• 科威特（MSCI Kuwait）：目标950，总回报-5%（本币0%，汇率0%，股息3%）
• 埃及（EGX30）：目标49500，总回报2%（本币-4%，汇率0%，股息6%）
• 秘鲁（MSCI Peru）：目标3300，总回报-2%（本币-9%，汇率4%，股息3%）
• 智利（IPSA）：目标11500，总回报3%（本币0%，汇率3%，股息3%）
• 哥伦比亚（COLCAP）：目标2300，总回报0%（本币-1%，汇率4%，股息6%）
• 土耳其（XU100）：目标13500，总回报-15%（本币-5%，汇率-14%，股息3%）
• 捷克（PX）：目标2350，总回报6%（本币-12%，汇率2%，股息5%）
• 希腊（ASE）：目标2500，总回报17%（本币10%，汇率1%，股息5%）
• 马来西亚（FBMKLCI）：目标1800，总回报14%（本币7%，汇率3%，股息4%）

关键图表

Exhibit 1: MSCI EM has gained ~10% following the announcement of the ceasefire, ahead of DM equities

Exhibit 2: North Asia, EM Europe, and LatAm have led the rebound; Saudi Arabia remained defensive

Exhibit 3: Valuations have sharply corrected over the past month; our macro P/E model points to moderate valuation recovery over 12m, based on our current baseline expectations

Exhibit 4: FII selling in EM Equities has resumed with $17bn in inflows following $79bn in outflows since the conflict began

Exhibit 5: Upgrades to North Asia EPS growth push our 2026/27 MSCI EM EPS growth forecast to 34%/14% from 23%/13%

Exhibit 6: We raise our 12m MSCI EM target by ~4% to 1750, implying ~10% upside over 12 months

Exhibit 7: North Asian equities have rebounded, while oil importers (India and ASEAN) have remained under pressure; we recently initiated a relative trade recommendation of North Asia vs. South Asia

Exhibit 8: We remain bullish on structural themes across EM including Defense, AI, and Renewables

Exhibit 9: Hungarian equities rallied post-elections, outperforming CEE-3 peers and EM

Exhibit 10: The HUF curve has scope to further rally under a change in inflation target and adjustments in inflation expectation amid Euro area accension...

Exhibit 11: ....which could help valuations reset higher

Exhibit 12: GEM funds have a relatively stable OW on Hungarian equites, while Global Funds are marginally UW

Exhibit 13: Our market preferences emphasize diversification; We remain OW Korea, China, Brazil & South Africa among larger EM markets and raised Colombia (MW). We lowered UAE (MW) and recently downgraded India (MW)

Exhibit 14: EM Sector Allocations: Our sector allocations are procyclical and emphasize our core themes; We are overweight Tech H/W, Internet and commodity sectors and generally UW downstream and consumer-sensitive sectors

Exhibit 15: EM offers various attractive market-specific sub-themes for alpha generation

Exhibit 16: Cyclicals vs. Defensives

Exhibit 17: US-exposed EM stocks have outperformed domestically exposed EM stocks

Exhibit 18: Weaker balance sheet stocks have outperformed amid tighter credit spreads

Exhibit 19: Stable Growers have outperformed the broader MSCI EM index over the long term and during past market drawdowns

Exhibit 20: Greece and Hungary banks vs. Polish banks

Exhibit 21: Poland Consumer Sectors vs. Financials

Exhibit 22: Poland Defense and Infrastructure stocks vs. MSCI EM Europe

Exhibit 23: Polish FX-Sensitive Stocks

Exhibit 24: The rally in South African equities since 2025 has been led by Miners, while the domestic market has been largely flat

Exhibit 25: South Africa Domestics vs. Exporters

Exhibit 26: South Africa’s domestic sector valuations are trading inexpensive relative to their historical range and are most positively levered to declining rates

Exhibit 27: South Africa (MXZA) vs. CEE-3 (MXME)

Exhibit 28: Bovespa returns decomposition

Exhibit 29: Equity valuations appear cheap relative to 10-year rates

Exhibit 30: Brazil equities have the highest negative correlation to local rates in EM, with lower rates implying higher equities...

Exhibit 31: ...and have tended to rally strongly following the first rate cut in past cutting cycles

Exhibit 32: Brazilian equities have performed well during episodes of declining 5Y rates...

Exhibit 33: ...with rate-sensitive pockets and domestically exposed stocks outperforming the headline index (about 2-3x on average)

Exhibit 34: Price performance of MSCI market and regional indices

Exhibit 35: MSCI EM returns since start of year have been earnings driven

Exhibit 36: EM Regional market performance

Exhibit 37: Relative price performance (US$) of MSCI EM markets vs. MSCI EM index

Exhibit 38: MSCI EM EPS

Exhibit 39: EM EPS Revisions

Exhibit 40: EM CY2026 Earnings Sentiment

Exhibit 41: Earnings sentiment vs performance