2026-04-18 · Goldman Sachs · Flow / Positioning

高盛：中国每周快报：市场上涨2%；证监会推出创业板新上市规则；一季度GDP和3月工业增加值超预期，零售销售不及预期

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原标题：Goldman Sachs CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART：Markets gained 2%； CSRC introduced new listing rules for ChiNext Board； Q1 GDP and March IP beat while retail sales missed

摘要

本周MXCN/CSI300分别上涨2.4%/2.0%。中国一季度GDP同比增长5.0%，3月工业增加值同比增长5.7%，均超预期；但3月零售销售同比增长1.7%，不及预期。证监会发布《关于深化创业板改革》的意见，支持新兴产业和未来产业公司上市。高盛将能源板块上调至超配，将食品饮料下调至低配，理由是“能源价格更高更持久”。南向通本周净流入33亿美元。报告还重点分析了能源驱动的再通胀对中国股市的影响，并更新了盈利预测和关键图表。

主要观点

市场表现：MXCN/CSI300本周上涨2.4%/2.0%。
行业表现：房地产（+3.9%）和新能源（+4.6%）跑赢；能源（-4.8%）和价值股（-1.8%）跑输。
宏观数据：一季度GDP同比+5.0%（预期+4.8%），3月工业增加值同比+5.7%（预期+5.0%），零售销售同比+1.7%（预期+4.0%）。
政策动态：证监会发布创业板改革意见，支持新兴和未来产业上市；国务院发布深化投资审批改革指导意见；美国计划4月20日启动系统退还已征收的IEEPA关税给美国进口商。
行业调整：高盛将能源上调至超配，食品饮料下调至低配，基于“能源价格更高更持久”的判断。
资金流：南向通本周净流入33亿美元，年初至今累计310亿美元。
估值：MXCN/CSI300的12个月远期市盈率分别为11.3倍/14.4倍；2026/2027年EPS增长共识分别为17%/17%和23%/13%。
盈利：材料板块盈利上调幅度最大；4Q25/1Q26财报季集中，A股将在4月底前完成。
再通胀主题：报告通过多个图表展示PPI通胀期间中国股市表现，以及PPI与盈利、估值的关系。
关键图表：包括能源驱动的再通胀、盈利日历、自有模型和晴雨表等。

论述逻辑

报告从本周市场表现和宏观数据入手，指出GDP和工业增加值超预期但零售销售疲软，显示经济复苏不均衡。政策方面，证监会创业板改革和国务院投资审批改革旨在支持新兴产业和提升效率。行业层面，高盛基于能源价格持续高企的预期上调能源至超配、下调食品饮料至低配。随后通过一系列图表分析PPI再通胀周期对股市的影响，认为能源驱动的再通胀有利于上游行业，但可能挤压下游利润。最后更新盈利预测和资金流数据，显示南向资金持续流入，国家队近期转为净买入。

关键展望

报告未明确给出未来验证点或时间窗口，但指出能源价格“更高更持久”是行业调整的关键假设。此外，创业板改革细则、美国关税退款机制的实施、以及后续财报季的盈利趋势将是关注重点。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Chinese equities performed well generally during previous PPI inflation periods

Exhibit 2: The “Sweet Spot” of inflation as far as equity valuations are concerned appears to be in the 1-3% range for China

Exhibit 3: Lower real rates are also well linked with higher equity valuations in China

Exhibit 4: Higher PPI is typically positively associated with corporate revenue across sectors but the impact on earnings is more mixed

Exhibit 5: PPI-CPI gap exhibits a negative correlation with overall corporate margins but remains positively correlated with total earnings growth

Exhibit 6: Strategic Barbell: Upstream Reflation Winners and Margin-Resilient Consumption Defenders

Exhibit 7: Consensus earnings revision trend for A shares in 2025E has been marked to market while 2026E has been relatively resilient

Exhibit 8: A summary of industry characteristics that could help define sectors’ relative position in PPI reflation cycle

Exhibit 9: 1Q26 reporting season for Chinese companies is concentrated over the next few weeks...

Exhibit 10: ...with A-shares to conclude by the end of April

Exhibit 11: Positive profit alerts are mainly in Tech Hardware, Capital Goods and Materials

Exhibit 12: We update our earnings forecasts to reflect reported earnings results so far

Exhibit 13: 76%/95% of the all China/MSCI China universe have reported so far with CY25 earnings rising 15%/declining 5% yoy

Exhibit 14: 4% of the all China universe have reported so far with 1Q26 earnings rising 91% yoy

Exhibit 15: CY25/1Q26 Earnings Calendar for key Chinese companies

Exhibit 16: Our A-H rotation model suggests that H shares are likely to modestly outperform A shares in the next three months

Exhibit 17: Our news search-based proxy indicates that policy towards POEs is now in an accommodative/neutral zone

Exhibit 18: Our revamped A-share Retail Sentiment Proxy is not stretched compared to previous periods of strong sentiment

Exhibit 19: US-China Relations Barometer (GSSRUSCN) at 48

Exhibit 20: Equity market easing stance seems to moderate per our Equity Policy Risks Barometer

Exhibit 21: Our ETF flow tracker indicates that the “National Team” has turned into a buyer in past weeks after selling down its equity exposures earlier this year

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高盛：中国每周快报：市场上涨2%；证监会推出创业板新上市规则；一季度GDP和3月工业增加值超预期，零售销售不及预期

摘要

主要观点

论述逻辑

关键展望

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