高盛：中国耐用消费品：家电追踪：2026年3月：国内增长和出口因高基数而表现分化；自3月起纳入割草机器人数据

原标题：Goldman Sachs CHINA CONSUMER DURABLES: APPLIANCE TRACKER: Mar 2026: Mixed domestic growth and exports pull-back on a high base; incorporate robotic lawn mowers data starting March

摘要

2026年3月中国家电数据呈现国内出货与出口分化：国内空调出货超预期（同比+6%），但统计局家电零售同比-5%（2M26为+3%），主要受高基数影响；出口增速转负（整体出口同比-10%），受春节时点和地缘政治不确定性拖累。报告首次纳入割草机器人海外App下载数据，显示3月需求仍强劲（同比接近+100%），九号公司份额持续提升（同比+5ppt）。高盛继续看好买入评级的美的（A/H）和九号公司。

主要观点

• 国内家电零售3月同比-5%（2M26为+3%），符合预期，因去年以旧换新刺激造成高基数。
• 空调国内出货3月同比+6%（2M26为-3%），超预期，得益于年初至今零售增长超预期及经销商在旺季前补库。
• 空调出口3月同比-10%（2M26为-4%），低于预期，受春节时点和中东冲突影响。
• 主要白电品牌中，美的、海尔、海信总出货增速领先行业，格力落后。美的空调总出货同比+7%，其中国内+18%、出口-3%。
• 洗衣机2M26总出货同比+6%（12月为+7%），国内-6%、出口+17%。冰箱2M26总出货同比+6%（12月为-3%），国内-10%、出口+19%。
• VRF系统2M26总出货额同比+4%（12月为-2%），国内+3%、出口+16%。
• 零售渠道方面，3月多数品类线上增长优于线下，线上ASP同比正增长，线下承压。
• 清洁电器中，科沃斯（添可）和石头科技3月在淘系平台增速分别为-19%和+6%，环比放缓但仍领先行业。
• 小厨电中，摩飞3月在淘系平台增速超20%+，领先同行。
• 海外RVC App下载量3月同比增速约+30%，割草机器人App下载量同比接近+100%，九号公司份额同比+5ppt。
• 航运成本过去一个月上升，同比转正；铝和铜价上涨，钢价基本稳定。

论述逻辑

报告从统计局零售数据、产业在线出货数据、电商平台销售数据、海外App下载数据等多维度分析3月家电行业表现。国内方面，高基数导致零售同比下滑，但空调出货超预期，显示渠道补库和价格上调预期推动；出口受春节错位和中东冲突影响转弱。通过品牌拆分，美的、海尔、海信表现优于格力。海外需求方面，消费者信心指数走弱，但中国品牌凭借产品力有望获取份额。报告首次纳入割草机器人数据，强调九号公司的增长潜力。

关键展望

• 报告预计2Q26主要白电出货将面临高基数压力，当前生产计划暗示同比下滑。
• 实际结果可能好于市场已较低的预期，因价格上调可能部分抵消销量压力。
• 海外需求不确定性仍存，能源价格挤压效应可能削弱可选消费需求，但中国领先企业海外份额提升可部分对冲。
• 报告未明确给出未来时间窗口或目标价。

推荐标的

• 美的集团（A/H）：买入评级。理由：股东回报提供下行保护，海外市场和新兴业务带来上行潜力。
• 九号公司：买入评级（报告提及对应其首次覆盖）。理由：产品线全面，包括国内两轮车份额提升、割草机器人结构性增长及海外两轮车潜力，估值接近历史低位。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Domestic data demonstrated mixed trends, while exports data pulled back in Mar vs 2M26

Exhibit 2: AC domestic ex-factory shipment growth improved sequentially in Mar vs 2M26

Exhibit 3: AC domestic shipment improved in Mar (+6% yoy in Mar vs -3% yoy in 2M26)

Exhibit 4: ...with Midea/Gree/Haier/Hisense's domestic shipments growing by +18%/+2%/+8%/+46% yoy in Mar

Exhibit 5: Washing machine domestic shipment growth moderated to -8% yoy in Feb

Exhibit 6: Haier/Midea grew above industry at -4%/-4% yoy in Feb

Exhibit 7: Domestic refrigerator ex-factory shipments moderated to -24% yoy growth in Feb

Exhibit 8: Midea/Haier came above/below the industry at +4%/-40% yoy growth in Feb

Exhibit 9: Domestic VRF ex-factory sales weakened to -22% yoy in Feb

Exhibit 10: Hisense-Hitachi and Gree came above industry, while Midea and Daikin lagged

Exhibit 11: China white goods exports weakened in Feb, with weaker EU/US consumer sentiment in Mar/Apr

Exhibit 12: US pending home sales, a leading indicator of existing home sales, was down slightly

Exhibit 13: AC ex-factory export shipments decreased by 10% yoy in Mar, down from -4% yoy in 2M26

Exhibit 14: Washing machine export growth was +26% yoy in Feb, vs. +11% yoy in Jan

Exhibit 15: Refrigerator export shipment growth accelerated to +24% yoy in Feb, vs. +14% yoy in Jan

Exhibit 16: VRF export ex-factory sales grew +7% yoy in Feb

Exhibit 17: Shipping rates increased in the past month...

Exhibit 18: ... and yoy turned positive as of mid-Apr

Exhibit 19: Online sales growth weakened in Mar vs 2M26

Exhibit 20: Leading white goods companies showed similar DD% yoy decline as the industry in Mar, while leaders in cleaning appliances and small kitchen appliances outpaced the industry in Mar.

Exhibit 21: Retail sales growth showed sequential moderation in Mar, though still better compared to 4Q25

Exhibit 22: Ecovacs (Tineco)/Roborock remain market leaders in the China cleaning appliances market. On a mom basis, Roborock gained shares.

Exhibit 23: Midea and Xiaomi showed mom market share increase in Mar, while Gree lost shares mom