伯恩斯坦：美国电气设备：公用事业资本支出状况4Q25——多年升级与2026年更高支出支持受覆盖标的有机增长加速

原标题：Bernstein U.S. Electrical Equipment：State of Utility Capex 4Q25 ~ multi-year upgrades & higher '26 spend supports accelerating organic growth for exposed coverage

摘要

伯恩斯坦更新了公用事业资本支出追踪系列报告。4Q25公用事业资本支出同比增长12%，环比增长30%，比季节性趋势高10个百分点。2025年全年资本支出增长10%，低于三个月前市场预期的16%，但较2024年的4%有所加速。市场共识预计2026年资本支出增长21%，是行业历史趋势8%的3倍，且预期较三个月前上调3个百分点。公用事业多年资本支出计划本季度增加约940亿美元，总额达1.15万亿美元（至2030年），同比增长22%，环比增长9%。增量投资的60%流向发电，发电多年计划同比增长39%。报告还引入大型负荷管道追踪器，识别出447吉瓦的累计容量（主要来自数据中心），占美国当前发电容量的33%。受覆盖标的如PWR、HUBB和ETN将受益于有机增长加速。但报告也指出，2025年资本支出不及预期可能预示超级周期面临NIMBY和政治障碍等现实阻力。

主要观点

• 4Q25公用事业资本支出同比增长12%，环比增长30%，比季节性趋势高10个百分点。
• 2025年全年资本支出增长10%，低于三个月前预期的16%，但较2024年的4%加速。
• 市场共识预计2026年资本支出增长21%，是行业历史趋势8%的3倍，且较三个月前上调3个百分点。
• 1Q26资本支出预计环比增长11%，远高于季节性下降18%的模式。
• 公用事业本季度将多年资本支出计划增加约940亿美元，总额达1.15万亿美元（至2030年），同比增长22%，环比增长9%。
• 增量投资的60%流向发电，发电多年计划同比增长39%，输电增长16%，配电增长10%。
• 报告引入大型负荷管道追踪器，识别出447吉瓦的累计容量（主要来自数据中心），占美国当前发电容量的33%。
• 2026年各类别支出均预计增长：发电同比增长34%，输电同比增长24%，配电同比增长14%（较2025年的9%显著加速）。
• 发电和输电在资本支出中的份额持续侵蚀配电，自2024年以来配电份额下降4个百分点。
• 报告认为，如果Exhibits 3-8所示，2026年21%的资本支出增长支持受覆盖标的（PWR、HUBB、ETN）有机增长加速。
• 但2025年资本支出不及预期可能预示超级周期面临NIMBY和政治障碍等阻力；EIA下调短期负荷增长预测，PJM回调负荷增长预测，CBRE报告主要市场在建数据中心容量首次下降。

论述逻辑

报告通过追踪公用事业季度资本支出数据，发现4Q25支出强劲且多年计划大幅上调，尤其是发电领域。基于此，报告认为2026年资本支出增长21%的共识预期将推动受覆盖电气设备公司的有机增长加速。然而，报告也指出2025年资本支出低于预期、负荷增长预测下调以及数据中心建设放缓等信号，表明增长可能并非直线，但长期负荷预测上升和大型负荷管道健康仍支撑看涨情绪。

关键展望

• 2026年公用事业资本支出预计增长21%，较三个月前预期上调3个百分点。
• 1Q26资本支出预计环比增长11%，远高于季节性下降18%的模式。
• 发电支出2026年预计同比增长34%，输电增长24%，配电增长14%。
• 多年资本支出计划至2030年达1.15万亿美元，同比增长22%。
• 风险包括：NIMBY和政治障碍、EIA和PJM下调负荷增长预测、数据中心建设放缓。

推荐标的

• ETN (Eaton)：评级Outperform，目标价428美元。受益于数据中心瓶颈和电气化长期趋势。
• HUBB (Hubbell)：评级Outperform，目标价553美元。受益于公用事业资本支出增长和电气化。
• PWR (Quanta Services)：评级Market-Perform，目标价515美元。对公用事业电气资本支出敞口最大，但评级为市场表现。

关键图表

Exhibit 1: Quanta is Most Exposed to Utility Electrical Capex in Our Coverage, Followed by Hubbell and Eaton

Exhibit 2: An Early Look Into ‘26; Current Utility Capex Expectations Present a Solid Outlook Across Our Exposed Space

Exhibit 3: Utility Capex vs. HUBB HUS

Exhibit 4: Utility Capex vs. HUBB Total

Exhibit 5: Utility Capex vs. ETN Americas

Exhibit 6: Utility Capex vs. ETN Total Electrical

Exhibit 7: Utility Capex vs. PWR Electrical Infrastructure

Exhibit 8: Utility Capex vs. PWR Total

Exhibit 9: After Growing 12% Y/Y in 4Q25, Consensus Expects Utility Capex to Accelerate Further in 1Q26 to 44% Y/Y

Exhibit 10: Following 2 Quarters of Sub-Seasonal Capex Growth, 4Q Capex Came in 10ppts Above Seasonal (+30% Q/Q vs. 20% Seasonal Trend)

Exhibit 11: Quarterly Utility Capex by Company

Exhibit 12: After Re-Accelerating to 10% Growth in 2025, Consensus Expects An Even Greater Re-Acceleration in 2026 Capex of 21%, which is 3x Higher Than the Industry’s Historical 8% Growth

Exhibit 13: Utilities Are Anticipating Growing Their Capex Budgets Most in Generation (+34% Y/Y in ‘26) and Transmission (+24% Y/Y in ‘26), while Distribution is Expected to Grow +14%. Interestingly, This Points to a Significant Re-Acceleration in Distribution Spend in ‘26

Exhibit 14: In the Last Quarter, Utilities’ Y/Y Capex Expectations Moved Higher For All 3 Categories, Most Notably Generation

Exhibit 15: On a Y/Y Basis, Generation and Transmission Continue to Eat into Distribution’s Share of Utility Capex

Exhibit 16: 2025 Capex Did Fall Short of Consensus’ +16% Expectation as of 4Q25 to +10%, Though This is Likely Leaking into 2026 Which Sits at +21% Y/Y Growth. This is 3ppts Higher Than 3 Months Ago and 5ppts Higher Than 6 Months Ago

Exhibit 17: Annual Utility Capex by Company

Exhibit 18: Utilities Raised Their Long-Term Capex Budgets By +22% Y/Y in 4Q25, a Repeat of 3Q25's Record-High

Exhibit 19: For Utilities That Explicitly Break Out Spend by Category in Their Long Term Capex Plans, Spending is Expected to Remain Strong in Transmission (+16%) and Generation (+39% Y/Y). Though Seeing the Lowest Growth, Utilities’ Spend Indications on Distribution is Re-Accelerating

Exhibit 20: Utilities Added $94B to Their Multi-Year Capex Budgets Q/Q. 60% of the Incremental Investment is Expected to Go Toward Generation

Exhibit 21: The Biggest Winner in Utilities’ Multi-Year Capex Budgets Remains Generation, Gaining Nearly 10ppts of Share vs. 2 Years Ago. This is Largely Coming at the Expense of Distribution

Exhibit 22: In 4Q25, 69% of Utilities Raised Their Long-Term Capex Budgets, Slightly Lower Than Last Years’ 72%, But Above the Recent Average

Exhibit 23: Utilities Raised Long-Term Capex Budgets by +9% Q/Q in 4Q25

Exhibit 24: A Snapshot of Utilities’ Y/Y and Q/Q Revisions in Utility Long-Term Capex Budgets

Exhibit 25: As of 4Q25, We Track 447 GW of Large Loads in Utilities’ Pipelines, Representing 33% of Current US Generation Capacity

Exhibit 26: What Topics Are Utilities & Investors Focused on During the Quarter?